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Financial Management ­ MGT201
VU
Lesson 27
RISK AND PORTFOLIO THEORY, CAPM, CRITICISM OF CAPM AND APPLICATION OF
RISK THEORY
Learning Objectives:
After going through this lecture, you would be able to have an understanding of the following topics
·  Risk, Portfolio Theory, CAPM
·  Criticisms of CAPM
·  Applications of Risk Theory
Today we will review some concepts about risk portfolio theory and capital asset pricing model.
There is saying in English that fortune favours the brave.
Summary of Single Stock (Stand Alone) Risk & Return:
The first thing that we studied was how to calculate the expected rate of return or risk for a
single stock that is what we call stand alone investment. Uncertainty comes along as we are not what is
price of the stock will be at any time in future? Because of this uncertainty there are possible outcomes
of such investment and we attach probability or their likely hood and we calculate a weighted average in
order to come up with expected rate of return on the investment.
Expected Return Formula (Weighted Average of Many Possible Future Outcomes for Returns of that
one Stock)
<r>=
(p i x r i) (where p = probability of future outcome and r is the rate
of return from that outcome
So, if there are three possible outcomes attached with it the formula will be
<r>=PArA+PBrB+PCrC
Where, p=possible outcomes. There is a probablity distribution of such outcomes and this
distribution is the measure of the spread or range of possible values or uncertainty. if we a look at the
graph of the normal distribution curve then the width of the curve is the measure of the risk or
uncertainty. We measure risk mostly by standard deviation.
Stand Alone Total Risk Formula (Standard Deviation or Spread of Distribution of Possible Future
Returns)
Sigma =  σ = (
( r i - < r i > )2 p i )) 0. 5 = (Var) 0. 5
This formula which represents the total risk of a single stock can be used for the portfolio of
stocks.
Portfolio Risk & Return:
We then spoke about the collection of many stocks. Why do sensible people invest in many
stocks the logic is very simple that do not put all your eggs in one basket. The experimental studies have
shown that if some one has 40 different stocks or investments which are not correlated to each other
then half of the risk can be eliminated. What kind of risk has been eliminated? This is the company's
specific risk that has been eliminated because of company's random events in the life of the company.
So, the diversification or investment in increasing number of stocks reduces the overall or total risk and
even if you diversified in 7 uncorrelated stocks it is possible to reduce the large portion of the
company's own risk .once you have known the return of the individual stock you have known about the
portfolio stock in collection of investments. Expected rate of return for 3 stocks on a portfolio is:
Expected Portfolio Return Formula (Weighted Average of Returns of Stocks in the Portfolio)
rP * = rA xA + rB xB + rCxC + (for a 3-Stock Portfolio)
Portfolio Risk Formula
σp =
XA 2σ
+ XB2 σ
+ 2 (XA XB σ  Aσ
ρ
2
2
)
(2 Stocks)
B
AB
If 2 stocks move in the same direction together then correlation coefficient is 1.0. if the exactly
move in the opposite direction then the correlation coefficient -1.0 and if there is no relation between the
movement of the stocks then the correlation coefficient is zero.
If More than 2 Stocks, then use RISK MATRIX
116
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Financial Management ­ MGT201
VU
3-Stock Portfolio Risk Formula
3 x 3 Matrix Approach
Stock A
Stock B
Stock C
XA2
2
Stock
XA XB
XA XC
A
A
B
AB
A
C
AC
A
XB2
2
Stock
XB XA
XB XC
B
A
BA
B
B
C
BC
B
XC2
2
Stock
XC XA
XC XB
C
A
CA
C
B
CB
C
C
The portfolio theory told us there is direct relationship between risk and the return and as risk of the
investment goes up then return also increase .it is mentioned that if correlation co-efficient is less then
or equal to zero (­ve) then the risk and return relationship between 2 stocks exhibits shaped curve what
it tells us is that it is possible that when we added the 3rd stock then it not only increase the overall return
but it also reduce the total risk of the portfolio and that is ideal . We found the parachute curve for the
portfolio which consist of more then 2 stocks and this large hook is the efficient frontier which
represents the most efficient combination of the different stocks in that portfolio. By adding stock C we
came up with parachute curve and we also came up with curve that envelops both of these curves which
is known as the efficient frontier. So, let's see how can we derive CML or the capital market line and
the equation of CML from this efficient market curve .portfolio return is with y- axis and risk along
with x-axis we see the line from risk free rate of return which is assumed to be 10% and is represented
by rRF .
Picking the Most Efficient Portfolio
Capital Market Line (CML) & T-Bill Portfolio
P Efficient Frontier
rP* = rRF + [ (rM - rRF) /
M]
rP*
for 3-Stock Portfolio
Portfo
30%
Capital Market Line
Stock C
lio
"The Parachute"
Retur
Stock A
20%
n
Optimal Portfolio Mix
(50%A, 30% B, 20%C) if
10%=
Stock B
rRF
Risk Free T-Bill ROR = 10%
40%
20%
2.5%
P
Portfolio with Negative
Risk
3.4%
or Zero Correlation
Coefficient
Parachute Graph and Efficient Frontier (Hook Shaped Curve) shows ALL possible Risk-Return
Combinations for ALL combinations of stocks in the Portfolio ­ whether efficient or not.
CML Straight Line Equation (T-Bill Portfolio and Optimal Portfolio Mix on Efficient Frontier Curve)
connects rRF (Risk-free or T-Bill return) to the Tangent Point on the Efficient Frontier Curve.
117
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Financial Management ­ MGT201
VU
It represents all Risk-Return Combinations for Efficient Portfolios in the Capital Market. We
assume easy access to risk-free T-Bill Portfolio. Portfolio Risk measured using Standard Deviation.
There is an optimal point of the line where
Stock A=50%
Stock B=30%
Stock C=20%
Summary of Beta:
Market Risk and Beta Coefficient (CAPM)
Single Stock Beta (=Slope of Best Fit Regression Line which passes through data points)
= Percent Change in Stock ROR / Percent Change in Market Index ROR
Portfolio Beta Risk Formula (Weighted Average Formula)
Stock Beta Formula in terms of Stock Standard Deviation & Covariance
= σ A σ M ρ AM /  σ  2  M
= σ A  ρ AM /  σ M = market risk
Security Market Line (SML)
SML (Security Market Line) - Cornerstone of CAPM:
It represents all Risk-Return Combinations for ALL Efficient Stocks in the Capital Market. Stock
risk measured using Beta. Market Price of a Stock is determined by Required Return on Stock which
depends on Market Risk (not Total Risk).You can not expect to receive extra return (or compensation)
for taking on Company-Specific Risk which Rational Investors have eliminated! Efficient Market
Prices are based on Market Risk Only and NOT Total Risk.
The Efficient Market will only offer you a Return (and a Share Price) which is the bare minimum acceptable
to rational diversified Investors.
Required ROR vs Expected ROR
SML Linear Equation & Graphical Interpretation
Security Market Line (SML)
ALL Efficient Stocks in Efficient Markets
Required
rA = rRF + (rM - rRF )
Return (r*)
A.
rA= 30%
Security Marketrket Risk
Line
rM= 20%
Ma
Premium for
Risky Stock A's
Avg Stock = 10%
rRF= 10%
Total Risk
Premium =
30-10 = 20%
A =+ 2.0
M =+ 1.0
Beta Risk (
)
Criticisms of CAPM & Alternatives:
Weakness in SML:
·  Not All Investors are rich or well-informed enough to hold Fully Diversified Portfolios
therefore Market Risk (and Betas) is NOT the only relevant factor in estimating Required
Return and Stock Prices. Other Efficient Market Assumptions.
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Financial Management ­ MGT201
VU
·
Taxes and Brokerage Costs that affect Investor's analysis and estimation of Returns have
been ignored
Weakness in CML:
Not All Investors are influential enough to be able to Borrow at the T-Bill Rate. Generally the
Borrowing Rate is higher than the Lending Rate.
Fama & French:
CAPM ignores 2 important determinants of Higher Required ROR (1) smaller firms and (2)
Low Market-to-Book Ratio.
Arbitrage Pricing Model:
Accounts for several factors that affect risk i.e. Tax, inflation, oil price,...
Financial Management Applications of Risk-Return Theory (CAPM):
·  Practical Real Asset Investment Decisions and Capital Budgeting
­  The most important NPV (and PV) Equations uses REQUIRED ROR (and NOT
Expected ROR)
·  Actual Share Pricing and Investment in Securities
­  Gordon's Formula for Share Pricing uses PV of Dividends which uses REQUIRED
ROR
Risk & Return - Must Consider both:
In this course we have studied the following concepts of financial management.
·  First Part of this Course - Valuation or Calculating NPV and PV which are measures of
Return. We ignored Risk and origins of Required ROR.
·  Second Part of this Course ­ Application of PV Concept to Valuation or Pricing of Bonds
(Debt) and Shares (Equity). Again we ignored Risk and origins of Required ROR.
·  Part 3 of the Course Introduced Risk and how it determines the Required Return used in
NPV and Share Price Formulas.
·  In Perfect Markets, Value depends on Required Return which depends on Market Risk (and
not Total Risk).
·  BUT, in Real Markets which are Imperfect and Inefficient, Total Risk is important. It can
be calculated using the Sigma (Standard Deviation) Formulas, probabilities, and Expected
Return.
·  Total Risk and Expected Return must BOTH be considered in Comparing Investments.
·  Market Risk and Required Return are Related to one another
Common Life Applications of Risk and Return Theory:
Concepts of Risk & Return Theory have Wide Practical Applications that require a Creative Mind.
Expected Value or Expected ROR or Expected Payoff
Total Risk or Standard Deviation (based on Spread or Range of Breadth of Possible ROR
outcomes) = Unique + Market Risk
Systematic (or Market or No diversifiable) Risk (= Beta A x Sigma M). Individual Risk relative
to Market or Industry.
·  Think Out of the Box:
Social Cost-Benefit Analysis of Power Plant:
Environmental and Village Relocation Risk, Uncertain Savings
Court Case Payoff: Claims & Penalties
Uncertain likelihood of success and Opponent, Uncertain Payoff
Likelihood of War: Capability & Intent (Game Theory)
Magnitude of Capability vs Uncertainty of Intent
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Table of Contents:
  1. INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT:Corporate Financing & Capital Structure,
  2. OBJECTIVES OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, FINANCIAL ASSETS AND FINANCIAL MARKETS:Real Assets, Bond
  3. ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS:Basic Financial Statements, Profit & Loss account or Income Statement
  4. TIME VALUE OF MONEY:Discounting & Net Present Value (NPV), Interest Theory
  5. FINANCIAL FORECASTING AND FINANCIAL PLANNING:Planning Documents, Drawback of Percent of Sales Method
  6. PRESENT VALUE AND DISCOUNTING:Interest Rates for Discounting Calculations
  7. DISCOUNTING CASH FLOW ANALYSIS, ANNUITIES AND PERPETUITIES:Multiple Compounding
  8. CAPITAL BUDGETING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING TECHNIQUES:Techniques of capital budgeting, Pay back period
  9. NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) AND INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (IRR):RANKING TWO DIFFERENT INVESTMENTS
  10. PROJECT CASH FLOWS, PROJECT TIMING, COMPARING PROJECTS, AND MODIFIED INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (MIRR)
  11. SOME SPECIAL AREAS OF CAPITAL BUDGETING:SOME SPECIAL AREAS OF CAPITAL BUDGETING, SOME SPECIAL AREAS OF CAPITAL BUDGETING
  12. CAPITAL RATIONING AND INTERPRETATION OF IRR AND NPV WITH LIMITED CAPITAL.:Types of Problems in Capital Rationing
  13. BONDS AND CLASSIFICATION OF BONDS:Textile Weaving Factory Case Study, Characteristics of bonds, Convertible Bonds
  14. BONDS’ VALUATION:Long Bond - Risk Theory, Bond Portfolio Theory, Interest Rate Tradeoff
  15. BONDS VALUATION AND YIELD ON BONDS:Present Value formula for the bond
  16. INTRODUCTION TO STOCKS AND STOCK VALUATION:Share Concept, Finite Investment
  17. COMMON STOCK PRICING AND DIVIDEND GROWTH MODELS:Preferred Stock, Perpetual Investment
  18. COMMON STOCKS – RATE OF RETURN AND EPS PRICING MODEL:Earnings per Share (EPS) Pricing Model
  19. INTRODUCTION TO RISK, RISK AND RETURN FOR A SINGLE STOCK INVESTMENT:Diversifiable Risk, Diversification
  20. RISK FOR A SINGLE STOCK INVESTMENT, PROBABILITY GRAPHS AND COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION
  21. 2- STOCK PORTFOLIO THEORY, RISK AND EXPECTED RETURN:Diversification, Definition of Terms
  22. PORTFOLIO RISK ANALYSIS AND EFFICIENT PORTFOLIO MAPS
  23. EFFICIENT PORTFOLIOS, MARKET RISK AND CAPITAL MARKET LINE (CML):Market Risk & Portfolio Theory
  24. STOCK BETA, PORTFOLIO BETA AND INTRODUCTION TO SECURITY MARKET LINE:MARKET, Calculating Portfolio Beta
  25. STOCK BETAS &RISK, SML& RETURN AND STOCK PRICES IN EFFICIENT MARKS:Interpretation of Result
  26. SML GRAPH AND CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL:NPV Calculations & Capital Budgeting
  27. RISK AND PORTFOLIO THEORY, CAPM, CRITICISM OF CAPM AND APPLICATION OF RISK THEORY:Think Out of the Box
  28. INTRODUCTION TO DEBT, EFFICIENT MARKETS AND COST OF CAPITAL:Real Assets Markets, Debt vs. Equity
  29. WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC):Summary of Formulas
  30. BUSINESS RISK FACED BY FIRM, OPERATING LEVERAGE, BREAK EVEN POINT& RETURN ON EQUITY
  31. OPERATING LEVERAGE, FINANCIAL LEVERAGE, ROE, BREAK EVEN POINT AND BUSINESS RISK
  32. FINANCIAL LEVERAGE AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE:Capital Structure Theory
  33. MODIFICATIONS IN MILLAR MODIGLIANI CAPITAL STRUCTURE THEORY:Modified MM - With Bankruptcy Cost
  34. APPLICATION OF MILLER MODIGLIANI AND OTHER CAPITAL STRUCTURE THEORIES:Problem of the theory
  35. NET INCOME AND TAX SHIELD APPROACHES TO WACC:Traditionalists -Real Markets Example
  36. MANAGEMENT OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE:Practical Capital Structure Management
  37. DIVIDEND PAYOUT:Other Factors Affecting Dividend Policy, Residual Dividend Model
  38. APPLICATION OF RESIDUAL DIVIDEND MODEL:Dividend Payout Procedure, Dividend Schemes for Optimizing Share Price
  39. WORKING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT:Impact of working capital on Firm Value, Monthly Cash Budget
  40. CASH MANAGEMENT AND WORKING CAPITAL FINANCING:Inventory Management, Accounts Receivables Management:
  41. SHORT TERM FINANCING, LONG TERM FINANCING AND LEASE FINANCING:
  42. LEASE FINANCING AND TYPES OF LEASE FINANCING:Sale & Lease-Back, Lease Analyses & Calculations
  43. MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS:Leveraged Buy-Outs (LBO’s), Mergers - Good or Bad?
  44. INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (MULTINATIONAL FINANCE):Major Issues Faced by Multinationals
  45. FINAL REVIEW OF ENTIRE COURSE ON FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT:Financial Statements and Ratios