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Corporate Finance ­FIN 622
VU
Lesson 11
METHODS OF PROJECT EVALUATIONS
The following topics will be discussed in this hand out.
Methods of Project evaluations:
Payback Period Method
Discounted Payback Period
Accounting Rate of Return ARR
Profitability Index PI
THE PAYBACK PERIOD (PP)
The time it takes the cash inflows from a capital investment project to equal the cash outflows, usually
expressed in years'. When deciding between two or more competing projects, the usual decision is to accept
the one with the shortest payback.
Payback is often used as a "first screening method". By this, we mean that when a capital investment project
is being considered, the first question to ask is: 'How long will it take to pay back its cost?' The company
might have a target payback, and so it would reject a capital project unless its payback period was less than a
certain number of years.
Example 1:
Years
0
1
2
3
4
5
Project A 1,000,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000
For a project with equal annual receipts:
= 4 years
Example 2:
Years
0
1
2
3
4
Project B - 10,000 5,000 2,500 4,000 1,000
Payback period lies between year 2 and year 3. Sum of money recovered by the end of the second year
= $7,500, i.e. ($5,000 + $2,500)
Sum of money to be recovered by end of 3rd year
= $10,000 - $7,500
= $2,500
= 2.625 years
Disadvantages of the payback method:
* It ignores the timing of cash flows within the payback period, the cash flows after the end of payback
period and therefore the total project return.
* It ignores the time value of money. This means that it does not take into account the fact that $1 today is
worth more than $1 in one year's time. An investor who has $1 today can either consume it immediately or
alternatively can invest it at the prevailing interest rate, say 30%, to get a return of $1.30 in a year's time.
* It is unable to distinguish between projects with the same payback period.
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Corporate Finance ­FIN 622
VU
* It may lead to excessive investment in short-term projects.
Advantages of the payback method:
·  Payback can be important: long payback means capital tied up and high investment risk. The method
also has the advantage that it involves a quick, simple calculation and an easily understood concept.
DISCOUNTED PAYBACK PERIOD:
Length of time required to recover the initial cash outflow from the discounted future cash inflows. This is the
approach where the present values of cash inflows are cumulated until they equal the initial investment. For
example, assume a machine purchased for $5000 yields cash inflows of $5000, $4000, and $4000. The cost
of capital is 10%. Then we have
The payback period (without discounting the future cash flows) is exactly 1 year. However, the discounted
payback period is a little over 1 year because the first year discounted cash flow of $4545 is not enough to
cover the initial investment of $5000. The discounted payback period is 1.14 years (1 year + ($5000 -
$4545)/$3304 = 1 year + .14 year).
THE ACCOUNTING RATE OF RETURN - (ARR):
The ARR method also called the return on capital employed (ROCE) or the return on investment (ROI)
method of appraising a capital project is to estimate the accounting rate of return that the project should
yield. If it exceeds a target rate of return, the project will be undertaken.
Note that net annual profit excludes depreciation.
Example:
A project has an initial outlay of $1 million and generates net receipts of $250,000 for 10 years.
Assuming straight-line depreciation of $100,000 per year:
= 15%
= 30%
Disadvantages:
* It does not take account of the timing of the profits from an investment.
* It implicitly assumes stable cash receipts over time.
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Corporate Finance ­FIN 622
VU
* It is based on accounting profits and not cash flows. Accounting profits are subject to a number of
different accounting treatments.
* It is a relative measure rather than an absolute measure and hence takes no account of the size of the
investment.
* It takes no account of the length of the project.
* It ignores the time value of money.
The payback and ARR methods in practice:
Despite the limitations of the payback method, it is the method most widely used in practice. There are a
number of reasons for this:
* It is a particularly useful approach for ranking projects where a firm faces liquidity constraints and requires
fast repayment of investments.
* It is appropriate in situations where risky investments are made in uncertain markets that are subject to
fast design and product changes or where future cash flows are particularly difficult to predict.
* The method is often used in conjunction with NPV or IRR method and acts as a first screening device to
identify projects which are worthy of further investigation.
* It is easily understood by all levels of management.
* It provides an important summary method: how quickly will the initial investment be recouped?
THE PROFITABILITY INDEX ­ PI:
This is also known as benefit-cost ratio. It is a relationship between the PV of all the future cash flows and
the initial investment. This relationship is expressed as a number calculated by dividing the PV of all cash
flows by initial investment.
This is a variant of the NPV method.
Decision rule:
PI > 1; accept the project
PI < 1; reject the project
If NPV = 0, we have:
NPV = PV - Io = 0
PV = Io
Dividing both sides by Io we get:
PI of 1.2 means that the project's profitability is 20%.
Example:
PV of CF Io
PI
Project A 100
50
2.0
Project B 1,500
1,000 1.5
Decision:
Choose option B because it maximizes the firm's profitability by $1,500.
Disadvantage of PI:
Like IRR it is a percentage and therefore ignores the scale of investment.
The NPV method is preferred over the PI method. This is because PI greater than 1 implies that the Net
Present Value of the project is positive. Secondly, NPV clearly states whether to undertake or reject a
project or not and return a dollar value by which the economic contribution is made to value of firm. This is
not the case with PI which only expresses the relative profitability of projects being considered.
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Table of Contents:
  1. INTRODUCTION TO SUBJECT
  2. COMPARISON OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
  3. TIME VALUE OF MONEY
  4. Discounted Cash Flow, Effective Annual Interest Bond Valuation - introduction
  5. Features of Bond, Coupon Interest, Face value, Coupon rate, Duration or maturity date
  6. TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES
  7. COMMON STOCK VALUATION
  8. Capital Budgeting Definition and Process
  9. METHODS OF PROJECT EVALUATIONS, Net present value, Weighted Average Cost of Capital
  10. METHODS OF PROJECT EVALUATIONS 2
  11. METHODS OF PROJECT EVALUATIONS 3
  12. ADVANCE EVALUATION METHODS: Sensitivity analysis, Profitability analysis, Break even accounting, Break even - economic
  13. Economic Break Even, Operating Leverage, Capital Rationing, Hard & Soft Rationing, Single & Multi Period Rationing
  14. Single period, Multi-period capital rationing, Linear programming
  15. Risk and Uncertainty, Measuring risk, Variability of return–Historical Return, Variance of return, Standard Deviation
  16. Portfolio and Diversification, Portfolio and Variance, Risk–Systematic & Unsystematic, Beta – Measure of systematic risk, Aggressive & defensive stocks
  17. Security Market Line, Capital Asset Pricing Model – CAPM Calculating Over, Under valued stocks
  18. Cost of Capital & Capital Structure, Components of Capital, Cost of Equity, Estimating g or growth rate, Dividend growth model, Cost of Debt, Bonds, Cost of Preferred Stocks
  19. Venture Capital, Cost of Debt & Bond, Weighted average cost of debt, Tax and cost of debt, Cost of Loans & Leases, Overall cost of capital – WACC, WACC & Capital Budgeting
  20. When to use WACC, Pure Play, Capital Structure and Financial Leverage
  21. Home made leverage, Modigliani & Miller Model, How WACC remains constant, Business & Financial Risk, M & M model with taxes
  22. Problems associated with high gearing, Bankruptcy costs, Optimal capital structure, Dividend policy
  23. Dividend and value of firm, Dividend relevance, Residual dividend policy, Financial planning process and control
  24. Budgeting process, Purpose, functions of budgets, Cash budgets–Preparation & interpretation
  25. Cash flow statement Direct method Indirect method, Working capital management, Cash and operating cycle
  26. Working capital management, Risk, Profitability and Liquidity - Working capital policies, Conservative, Aggressive, Moderate
  27. Classification of working capital, Current Assets Financing – Hedging approach, Short term Vs long term financing
  28. Overtrading – Indications & remedies, Cash management, Motives for Cash holding, Cash flow problems and remedies, Investing surplus cash
  29. Miller-Orr Model of cash management, Inventory management, Inventory costs, Economic order quantity, Reorder level, Discounts and EOQ
  30. Inventory cost – Stock out cost, Economic Order Point, Just in time (JIT), Debtors Management, Credit Control Policy
  31. Cash discounts, Cost of discount, Shortening average collection period, Credit instrument, Analyzing credit policy, Revenue effect, Cost effect, Cost of debt o Probability of default
  32. Effects of discounts–Not effecting volume, Extension of credit, Factoring, Management of creditors, Mergers & Acquisitions
  33. Synergies, Types of mergers, Why mergers fail, Merger process, Acquisition consideration
  34. Acquisition Consideration, Valuation of shares
  35. Assets Based Share Valuations, Hybrid Valuation methods, Procedure for public, private takeover
  36. Corporate Restructuring, Divestment, Purpose of divestment, Buyouts, Types of buyouts, Financial distress
  37. Sources of financial distress, Effects of financial distress, Reorganization
  38. Currency Risks, Transaction exposure, Translation exposure, Economic exposure
  39. Future payment situation – hedging, Currency futures – features, CF – future payment in FCY
  40. CF–future receipt in FCY, Forward contract vs. currency futures, Interest rate risk, Hedging against interest rate, Forward rate agreements, Decision rule
  41. Interest rate future, Prices in futures, Hedging–short term interest rate (STIR), Scenario–Borrowing in ST and risk of rising interest, Scenario–deposit and risk of lowering interest rates on deposits, Options and Swaps, Features of opti
  42. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET’S OPTIONS
  43. Calculating financial benefit–Interest rate Option, Interest rate caps and floor, Swaps, Interest rate swaps, Currency swaps
  44. Exchange rate determination, Purchasing power parity theory, PPP model, International fisher effect, Exchange rate system, Fixed, Floating
  45. FOREIGN INVESTMENT: Motives, International operations, Export, Branch, Subsidiary, Joint venture, Licensing agreements, Political risk