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Financial Management ­ MGT201
VU
Lesson 05
FINANCIAL FORECASTING AND FINANCIAL PLANNING
Learning Objectives:
After going through this lecture, you would be able to have an understanding of the following concepts.
·  Financial Forecasting and Financial Planning.
·  Methods of forecasting
Before going into the detailed calculation of cash flow, it is important to know the principles behind
financial forecasting and financial planning.
Although, financial planning and forecasting cannot reduce the uncertainty in our lives, the idea is
simply to acknowledge and identify different points in time, where we expect some future occurrences,
and to prepare plans and contingencies in the light of those forecasted happenings. Of course, we cannot
be certain about the future, but we can always plan and arrange for it.
Objectives of Financial Forecasting:
Although, financial planning and forecasting cannot reduce the uncertainty in our lives, the idea is
simply to acknowledge and identify different points in time, where we expect some future occurrences,
and to prepare plans and contingencies in the light of those forecasted happenings. Of course, we cannot
be certain about the future, but we can always plan and arrange for it.
1) Reduce cost of responding to emergencies by anticipating the future occurrences
2) Prepare to take advantage of future opportunities
3) Prepare contingency and emergency plans
4) Prepare to deal with possible outcomes
Planning Documents:
There are three types of documents that are to be prepared while making a financial plan. These are
1) Cash Budget
2) Pro Forma Balance Sheet
3) Pro Forma Income Statement
Here, the term `pro forma' refers to forecasting. These pro forma statements are prepared on the basis of
certain estimates.
Methods of forecasting
In order to prepare pro forma statements, two methods are commonly practiced, which are given
as under
­  Percentage of Sales:  Simple
­  Cash Budget: Detailed, more complicated
Percentage of sales:
Step 1: Estimate year-by-year Sales Revenue and Expenses
Step 2: Estimate Levels of Investment Needs (in Assets) required meeting estimated sales (using
Financial Ratios). That how the Assets of the company changes with the change in
Step 3: Estimate the Financing Needs (Liabilities)
Explanation:
While employing percentage of sales method, we would estimate the cash flows based on the
sales revenue. The first step is to forecast the changes in the sales revenue in the successive years.
Expenses incurring in successive period would also be estimated. These expenses include cost of goods
sold expense, administrative, expense, marketing expense, depreciation expense, and other expenses.
However, these revenues and expenses would be estimated on cash, rather than accrual basis.
After estimating the revenues and expenses, we need to forecast the anticipated changes in
assets and liabilities as a result of changes in sales. Having forecasted the assets and liabilities as a result
of changes in sale, we would be able to identify how much capital the firm has to invest in assets and
how much the company needs to borrow as a result of any shortfall. Here, we would examine the
various heads of assets and liabilities and their relationship with sales. We can establish these relations
by identifying the changes in assets and liabilities as a result of change in sales, and to do that certain
assumptions need to be considered.
GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS
Current Assets:
Generally grow in proportion to Sales.
Fixed Assets: Do not always grow in proportion to Sales. Ask if you need  to expand property, office
or factory space, machinery in order to achieve your Sales target.
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Financial Management ­ MGT201
VU
Current Liabilities:
Also called Spontaneous Financing. Generally grow in proportion to Sale
Long Term Liabilities: Also, called Discretionary Financing does not grow in proportion to Sales
Explanation:
Current assets include cash, marketable securities, accounts receivable, inventory, and prepaid
expenses. Out of these current assets, changes in cash, accounts receivable and inventory can be directly
linked to changes in sales. However, marketable securities and prepaid expenses are independent of
sales, i.e., changes in sales may not affect these two heads. It is also important to note that the current
assets do not change exactly in the same proportion as the sales in real life situation, i.e., an increase of
10 percent in sales may not necessarily guarantee that the current assets would also increase by 10
percent. However, for the sake of simplicity we would assume that the current assets change
proportionally as the sales change.
On the other hand, fixed assets do not change directly with a change in sales. For example, if
you plan to increase the sales revenue by 20% then it is not necessary to increase the fixed assets by
20%. But, if a company plans to double its sales in the next three years, the company might have to
increase its fixed assets; however, small year-to-year changes in sales do not affect the fixed assets.
Current liabilities include accounts payable, short term portion of long term liabilities and
accrued expenses. Current liabilities like current assets are assumed to grow proportionally with any
growth in sales. If the sales of a company increase by 30 percent, its current liabilities would also
increase by 30 percent. Current liabilities are also called spontaneous financing since they move in
direct relation with changes in sales.
However, the long term liabilities, also known as discretionary financing, do not directly change
in proportion to the changes in sales revenue.
In order to have a better understanding of the aforementioned concepts, let us take into
consideration a numerical example.
Example:
Assume that you are establishing cafeteria as a new business venture. In order to get your
project funded you would be needing capital. In addition, you would also need to forecast how your
business would generate revenues and incur expenses in the coming years.
Suppose you expect the Sales Revenue from your Café (or Canteen) business to grow from Rs
200,000 to Rs 300,000 and your Expenses to grow from Rs 50,000 to Rs 70,000 after 1 year. These
forecasts can be based on the business environment in which the business operates, competition faced
by the business, marketing efforts and activities of the business and the target market.
The first thing we need to calculate here is the sales growth rate. The increase in the sales in Rupee
terms is 300,000-200,000=Rs.100, 000. The sales revenue has increased up to rupees 100,000 rate of
increase is 50% as present sales were Rs.200, 000.
This means that the Sales Revenue growth rate is:
(300,000-200,000) / 200,000 = 0.5 = 50%
Similarly an increase in expenses of Rs 20,000 shows that the rate of increase in expense is 40%
(i.e., increase of Rs 20,000 in expenses divided by the expenses in year one).
After forecasting the growth rate in revenues and expenses, the next step is to estimate the changes in
investment and financing (i.e., changes in assets and liabilities).
In order to estimate these changes, we would need to calculate a few ratios.
In order to estimate the current assets for the next year, we need to calculate the ratio current
asset to sales for the current year. In order to arrive at the estimate of current assets for the next year we
would simply multiply the estimated sales for the next year with the ratio.
Estimated current assets for the next year
= [Current assets for the current year/Current sales] x Estimated sales for the next year
If we assume the current assets/sales ratio to be 20 percent, putting in the values in the
aforementioned equation, we get
Current assets for the next year = 300,000 x (0.2) = 60,000
This shows that with an increase in sales of Rs 100,000, the current assets of the cafeteria are likely to
increase as 20 percent of the sales.
We will assume here that there is no change in the fixed assets. As mentioned earlier, fixed
assets do not change with year-to-year changes in sales, however, over a period of time, the fixed assets
may be increased as the business requires expansion.
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Financial Management ­ MGT201
VU
The next step is to forecast the retained earnings--the amount of profit which would be
reinvested in the business. Retained earning forecasting is important so that any shortfall in cash could
be identified and the amount of external financing necessary for the business could also be assessed.
Retained earnings can be estimated using the following formula
Expected Estimated retained earnings
= estimated sales x profit margin x plowback ratio
Plow back ratio=1-pay out ratio
Pay out ratio=dividend/net income
Profit margin=net income/sales
Here, we assume that the profit margin ratio is 25 percent, whereas payout ratio of the cafeteria is 50
percent
Estimated retained earnings = 300,000 x 0.25 x (1-0.5)
=75,000*(1-0.5) =Rs.37, 500
Rs 37,500/- is predicted retained earnings amount which should appear in the pro forma balance sheet. It
shoes that half of the income will be distributed among the owners & the other half will be reinvested.
Now let's forecast the external or discretionary financing (external financing), since we
have estimated the revenues and expenses of the business, the changes in assets and the part of the net
income that is to be reinvested in the business.
The formula will be used:
Estimated discretionary financing
=
estimated total assets ­ estimated total liabilities ­estimated total equity
Estimated total equity can be found out by adding the retained earnings plus initial
investment. The business was started with an initial investment of Rs 100,000 and then after one year of
operations the earnings retained out of the profit, i.e., Rs 37,500 would be added to the equity. Hence
the total equity is Rs 137,500.
Now we can easily solve the above given equation
Estimated discretionary financing
= estimated total assets ­estimated total liabilities- estimated total equity
=160,000-0-137,500= Rs.22, 500
This is the borrowing that we need to raise in form of loan or the equity, as a result of
growth in sales.
After calculating the estimated revenues, expenses, assets and liabilities, we are in a position to
prepare the pro forma cash flow statement. The owners like to see the company to grow at a steady rate
rather then high growth & slump scenario. The shareholders prefer those companies where growth rate
is steady and consistent & the mangers need to make sure that the growth rate remains steady.
If you want to maintain the forecasted financial ratios that you have calculated and along with this we
do not want additional personal capital to be invested in the business, then at what rate the business is
growing can be calculated by the following formula
G (Desired Growth Rate) = return on equity x (1- pay out ratio)
Pay out ratio as defined above equals, dividends/net income.
Return on equity is net income/ total equity.
Return on equity would be discussed in detail when we would study the rate of return & capital
budgeting.
Drawback of Percent of Sales Method:
Despite the fact that percentage of sales method is widely used method for forecasting, it
has certain disadvantages.
The first and the foremost problem with this method is that it is only a rough approximation and
is not very detailed. The other problem is that if there is a change in fixed assets during the forecasted
period the percentage of sales method would not yield a very accurate answer. The third problem is that
the lumpy assets are not taken into account while using the percentage of sales method. Here, lumpy
assets refer to those assets which can only be acquired in large discrete units.
Summarizing the above discussion, we can say that in percentage of sales method of
forecasting pro forma cash flow statement most of the heads in the balance sheet are linked to the sales
growth of the business. First of all, we need to know the ratios of assets and liabilities to sales for the
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Financial Management ­ MGT201
VU
current period. These ratios are then applied to the estimated sales for the next period to get a forecast of
assets and liabilities for the next period.
After understanding the dynamics of percentage of sales method, and having prepared the pro
forma income statement and pro forma balance sheet, we are in a position to discuss the forecasted or
pro forma cash flow statement. A pro forma cash flow statement is just like an ordinary cash flow
statement; the only difference is that the figures in a pro forma cash flow statement are estimated figures
rather than actual ones. The estimated statement is later compared to the real after-effect cash flow
statement to assess the quality of the estimate.
After calculating the estimated sales revenue, we have already calculated the estimated net
income of the business, multiplying the estimated figure of sales for the next year with the profit margin
ratio. Forecasted net income gives the starting point for an estimated cash flow statement. If the assets
are 20% of sales and depreciation is10% of the assets then the depreciation is 10% multiply 20% which
is equal to 2% of sales. After calculating depreciation at 2%, you can calculate the forecasted
depreciation this will appear in our forecasted cash flow statement. Afterwards we would see the
increases and decreases in current assets and current liabilities. An increases in current assets and
increase in current liabilities can be calculated using constant percentage of sales approach. We can
compare the forecasted cash flow with the actual cash flow statement to know how much accurate our
estimates are. If we use indirect cash flow then the first thing is our net income plus depreciation, minus
increase in current assets, plus decrease in current liabilities, would provide us with cash flows from
operations.
PRO FORMA CASH FLOW STATEMENT
(`000 Rs)
(`000 Rs)
(`000 Rs)
Net Income
400
Add Depreciation Expense
100
Subtract Increase in Current Assets:
Increase in Cash
(400)
Increase in Inventory
(700)
(1100)
Add Increase in Current Liabilities:
Increase in A/c Payable
500
Cash Flow from Operations
(100)
Cash Flow from Investments
0
Cash Flow from Financing
500
Net Cash Flow from All Activities
400
Note 1:
Indirect Cash Flow Approach using Income Statement and two consecutive Balance
Sheets
Note 2:
Final Net Cash Flow from All Activities should match the difference in the difference in
the closing balances in the Balance Sheets from June 30th 2001 and June 30th 2002
Note 3:
Investments include all cash sale and purchases of non-current assets and marketable
securities
Note 4:
Financing includes all cash changes in loans, leasing, and equity etc.
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Table of Contents:
  1. INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT:Corporate Financing & Capital Structure,
  2. OBJECTIVES OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, FINANCIAL ASSETS AND FINANCIAL MARKETS:Real Assets, Bond
  3. ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS:Basic Financial Statements, Profit & Loss account or Income Statement
  4. TIME VALUE OF MONEY:Discounting & Net Present Value (NPV), Interest Theory
  5. FINANCIAL FORECASTING AND FINANCIAL PLANNING:Planning Documents, Drawback of Percent of Sales Method
  6. PRESENT VALUE AND DISCOUNTING:Interest Rates for Discounting Calculations
  7. DISCOUNTING CASH FLOW ANALYSIS, ANNUITIES AND PERPETUITIES:Multiple Compounding
  8. CAPITAL BUDGETING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING TECHNIQUES:Techniques of capital budgeting, Pay back period
  9. NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) AND INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (IRR):RANKING TWO DIFFERENT INVESTMENTS
  10. PROJECT CASH FLOWS, PROJECT TIMING, COMPARING PROJECTS, AND MODIFIED INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (MIRR)
  11. SOME SPECIAL AREAS OF CAPITAL BUDGETING:SOME SPECIAL AREAS OF CAPITAL BUDGETING, SOME SPECIAL AREAS OF CAPITAL BUDGETING
  12. CAPITAL RATIONING AND INTERPRETATION OF IRR AND NPV WITH LIMITED CAPITAL.:Types of Problems in Capital Rationing
  13. BONDS AND CLASSIFICATION OF BONDS:Textile Weaving Factory Case Study, Characteristics of bonds, Convertible Bonds
  14. BONDS’ VALUATION:Long Bond - Risk Theory, Bond Portfolio Theory, Interest Rate Tradeoff
  15. BONDS VALUATION AND YIELD ON BONDS:Present Value formula for the bond
  16. INTRODUCTION TO STOCKS AND STOCK VALUATION:Share Concept, Finite Investment
  17. COMMON STOCK PRICING AND DIVIDEND GROWTH MODELS:Preferred Stock, Perpetual Investment
  18. COMMON STOCKS – RATE OF RETURN AND EPS PRICING MODEL:Earnings per Share (EPS) Pricing Model
  19. INTRODUCTION TO RISK, RISK AND RETURN FOR A SINGLE STOCK INVESTMENT:Diversifiable Risk, Diversification
  20. RISK FOR A SINGLE STOCK INVESTMENT, PROBABILITY GRAPHS AND COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION
  21. 2- STOCK PORTFOLIO THEORY, RISK AND EXPECTED RETURN:Diversification, Definition of Terms
  22. PORTFOLIO RISK ANALYSIS AND EFFICIENT PORTFOLIO MAPS
  23. EFFICIENT PORTFOLIOS, MARKET RISK AND CAPITAL MARKET LINE (CML):Market Risk & Portfolio Theory
  24. STOCK BETA, PORTFOLIO BETA AND INTRODUCTION TO SECURITY MARKET LINE:MARKET, Calculating Portfolio Beta
  25. STOCK BETAS &RISK, SML& RETURN AND STOCK PRICES IN EFFICIENT MARKS:Interpretation of Result
  26. SML GRAPH AND CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL:NPV Calculations & Capital Budgeting
  27. RISK AND PORTFOLIO THEORY, CAPM, CRITICISM OF CAPM AND APPLICATION OF RISK THEORY:Think Out of the Box
  28. INTRODUCTION TO DEBT, EFFICIENT MARKETS AND COST OF CAPITAL:Real Assets Markets, Debt vs. Equity
  29. WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC):Summary of Formulas
  30. BUSINESS RISK FACED BY FIRM, OPERATING LEVERAGE, BREAK EVEN POINT& RETURN ON EQUITY
  31. OPERATING LEVERAGE, FINANCIAL LEVERAGE, ROE, BREAK EVEN POINT AND BUSINESS RISK
  32. FINANCIAL LEVERAGE AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE:Capital Structure Theory
  33. MODIFICATIONS IN MILLAR MODIGLIANI CAPITAL STRUCTURE THEORY:Modified MM - With Bankruptcy Cost
  34. APPLICATION OF MILLER MODIGLIANI AND OTHER CAPITAL STRUCTURE THEORIES:Problem of the theory
  35. NET INCOME AND TAX SHIELD APPROACHES TO WACC:Traditionalists -Real Markets Example
  36. MANAGEMENT OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE:Practical Capital Structure Management
  37. DIVIDEND PAYOUT:Other Factors Affecting Dividend Policy, Residual Dividend Model
  38. APPLICATION OF RESIDUAL DIVIDEND MODEL:Dividend Payout Procedure, Dividend Schemes for Optimizing Share Price
  39. WORKING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT:Impact of working capital on Firm Value, Monthly Cash Budget
  40. CASH MANAGEMENT AND WORKING CAPITAL FINANCING:Inventory Management, Accounts Receivables Management:
  41. SHORT TERM FINANCING, LONG TERM FINANCING AND LEASE FINANCING:
  42. LEASE FINANCING AND TYPES OF LEASE FINANCING:Sale & Lease-Back, Lease Analyses & Calculations
  43. MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS:Leveraged Buy-Outs (LBO’s), Mergers - Good or Bad?
  44. INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (MULTINATIONAL FINANCE):Major Issues Faced by Multinationals
  45. FINAL REVIEW OF ENTIRE COURSE ON FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT:Financial Statements and Ratios