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Financial Management ­ MGT201
VU
Lesson 07
DISCOUNTING CASH FLOW ANALYSIS, ANNUITIES AND PERPETUITIES
Learning Objectives:
After going through this lecture, you would be able to have an understanding of the following concepts.
·  Discounted Cash Flows (DCF Analysis)
·  Annuities
·  Perpetuity
This lecture is continuation of the previous lecture's topics. In the previous lecture, we had
discussed the calculation of the Net Present Value (NPV) and the use of the value of interest rate or
Opportunity cost in the process. Bank Interest on the PLS Account represents the Minimum Opportunity
Cost of our investment. A good investment opportunity should, however, offer a higher return than the
Bank Interest rate. We also used the time & arrow diagram to show the cash flows forecast. In the
diagram, we used upward pointing arrow to represent the cash inflows & downward pointing arrow are
used to represent the cash outflows. You can simplify that diagram by arithmetically solving the upward
& down ward pointing arrows at same point in time by showing it with one arrow. (see Fig)
Cash Flow Diagram
Recap of Café Example
Use Downward Pointing Arrows to show Cash Outflows (Cash Payments or Expenses
or Investments). Use Upward Pointing Arrows to show Cash Inflows (Cash Receipts
ie. Cash Revenue or Income)
Receipts = Rs. 200,000
Year 1: 3 Cash Flow Arrows
at one point in time can be
simplified into 1 Net Cash
Flow Arrow: 200,000 ­
50,000 ­ 30,000 = +120,000
Interest: 10% pa
Yr 0
Yr 1
Future Investment = Rs 30,000
Payments = Rs 50,000
Initial Investment = Rs 100,000
The arrows in time-and-arrow diagram can be added and subtracted when they are on same
point in time but when these arrows are at the different point of time these cannot be added or subtracted.
Now, let's talk about some common cash flow patterns the most common is called annuity.
Annuity:
An annuity is a series of fixed payments, which might be over a fixed number of years, or over
the lifetime of an individual, or both. The commonly known types of annuities we see are the monthly
rent, and monthly mortgage payments, or insurance premiums.
There are two types of annuities
1. Ordinary Annuity
An ordinary annuity, also known as deferred annuity, consists of a series of equal payments at the end of
each period.
2. Annuity Due
An annuity due consists of a series of equal payments at the beginning of each period.
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Financial Management ­ MGT201
VU
Value of Annuity depends on the Constant Cash Flows (CCF) (over a limited or finite
period of time) and the Discount Factor (which is different for Annual or Multiple
Compounding)
CCF
CCF CCF CCF CCF
Ordinary Five Year Annuity
Time Line (Years)
Yr 1 Yr 2
Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5
Annual Compounding (at end of every year):
FV = CCF (1 + i) n - 1
For example, the payment of Rs.10,000 as monthly rental to the land lord is an annuity which
gives birth to an annuity stream. Future value of an annuity can be seen as follows:
Future value of annuity =constant cash flows x (1+i)  n-1/i
Where, i=interest rate
n=no. of years
We can write this formula in smaller compounded form which describes a compounding cycle given as
under:
Multiple Compounding:
Future Value of annuity =CCF (constant cash flow)*(1+ (i/m)  m*n-1/i/n
Once we have calculated the future value of the annuity, it is very easy to calculate the present
value using the well-known interest rate formula.
Annual Compounding (at end of every year)
PV =FV / (1 + i ) n . n = life of Annuity in number of years
Multiple Compounding:
PV =FV / [1 + (i/m)] mxn
i = % interest per year
­  More than once per year i.e. Monthly (m =12), Quarterly (m=4), Six-monthly (m=2).
n = number of years
Now let's talk about another kind of cash flow pattern called perpetuity.
The difference between Annuity and Perpetuity is that the Perpetuity is an ongoing concern, it is never
ending stream of annuities, whereas an annuity is for a limited period.
Perpetuity:
"It is defined as an annuity with an infinite life making continual payments."
In real life, we see the example of perpetuity in the retirement plan. For Example, you might
plan to save a sufficient amount of money & invested in a particular security or investment that will give
you steady & consistent rate of return on every month or quarter and this represents a constant cash flow
amount that we can assume to go as long as you live. Since we are not sure how far we are going to live
and we make an infinite series of annuities the formula of Future value of Perpetuity is simpler than that
of annuity:
Future value of perpetuity=constant cash flow/interest rate
As we assume that, it is never ending and on going so time is irrelevant and is simply dropped
out of the equation.
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Financial Management ­ MGT201
VU
Common Cash Flow Patterns
Perpetuity
·
Perpetuity
­ Never-ending Annuity. It is a Perpetual or
Infinite stream of Constant Cash Flows
(CCF) at regular intervals.
PV = CCF
i
CCF
CCF CCF CCF CCF CCF
CCF
Infinity
Yr 1 Yr 2
Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6
­
Note: For Perpetuity whose CCF is growing at constant
annual growth rate % "g" : PV = CCF / (i - g)
Let's do a simple numerical example which will help us what an annuity calculation is like
Example:
Assume that we need to make a basic financial decision, whether to purchase a particular asset
or to get it on lease (installments).
A car has a Market Value today of Rs 150,000. If you get the car on Lease Financing, then you
are required to pay a fixed regular rental at a fixed interest rate to the Leasing Company. You are
allowed to use the car but the ownership of the car stays in the name of the Leasing Company until you
complete all your rental payments. The question is whether you should Lease the car or Buy it?
The Leasing Company quotes Rs 120,000 every year for 2 years in the form of Car Lease
Rental at a Nominal rate of interest (APR interest rate) of 20% pa. Then what is the total Future Value
you would have paid after 2 years? You would be paying approximately Rs 240,000 if you do not take
into account the time value of money.
Now we calculate the present value of the investment by using Time value of money concept.
First, we need to calculate the future value by using annuity formula
FV =CCF [(1+i) n - 1]/ i
=120,000[(1+0.2)2 -1]/0.2
= Rs 264,000 (yearly compounding)
If we deposit the amount annually in a bank at the rate of 20 percent, we would be able to get Rs
264,000 at the end of the second year. Now we will calculate what the present value of this future value
is going to be, and for this, we will use the old interest rate formula
PV = FV / (1+i) n
= 264,000 / (1+0.2)2
= Rs 183,333
The resulting amount is about Rs 33,000 more than what we would have originally paid if we
had bought the car rather than lease it
The above calculation, however, was not based on realistic assumptions because car lease
rentals are generally paid monthly, rather than annual payments. In fact, you pay Rs 10,000 per month
for 2 years. We use periodic interest rate (i/m). Now, what is the future value after 2 years? Our cash
flow diagram should present the monthly installments & not annual Payments.
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Financial Management ­ MGT201
VU
Monthly Lease Rentals Example
Annuity - Cash Flow Diagram
FV2 = Rs 292,150
PV = Rs 196,481
CCF = Monthly Rentals
= Rs 10,000
Interest = 20% pa
Time Line (Years)
Step 1: Bring All the Cash
Yr 0
Yr 1
Yr 2
Flows Forward to Year 2
(because formula is written
Step 1
in terms of FV).
Step2: Discount the
Step 2 (24 jumps back)
Combined Cash Flow at
Year 2 back to the Present
It can be argued that by paying a rental of 10,000 monthly, we are actually paying Rs 120,000
in a year, so there hardly any difference. But, by not realizing the difference, one is violating the time
value of money because cash flows occurring at different points of time cannot be subtracted or added.
It is the cardinal principle of Time value of money.
If we have to calculate the future value of the annuity on a monthly basis, we would use the
following formula.
=CCF X {[(1+i/m)  nxm-1]/ (i/m)}
Now the m= 12 compounding cycle in a year
Putting the values in the formula, we obtain the result as under.
FV2=Rs 292,150
Now, we can calculate the present value of the future value of annuity
PV = FV / (1+i) n
=292150/(1+.2/12)2x12
=196,481
The present value of annuity can also be called the intrinsic value of the annuity.
The aforementioned technique allows us to compare the amount of money we are paying to
leasing company with the market value of car. It helps you to decide whether you should buy the car on
market price or to get it leased. The cost of leasing at 20% p.a. tell us that you have to pay 20% interest
& you have to pay more money in leasing as compare to the decision if you buy it .
Perpetuity Example - Retirement Planning
You would like to retire at the age of 60 and receive an income of Rs. 200,000 every year from
your Bank Account for as long as you live. How much money do you need to deposit in the Bank
Account offering 10% pa so that the Account will pay you Rs 200,000 of interest income every year
forever (even though you will not live forever)!
·  PV = CCF / i = 200,000 / 0.10 = Rs 2,000,000
This also implies that you would be receiving Rs 200,000 every year for the rest of your life and
the money would neither finish nor decrease in amount. This would happen so, because what you would
be receiving at the end each year would be interest accrued on the investment that you have made. The
money that you are getting is not a part of the investment; instead, it is the yield on your investment.
This may sound like a `big idea' for making money, but in fact, it is not so. Inflation, a macroeconomic
syndrome erodes the value of money constantly. If the prevailing inflation rate is 5 percent, then your
real return on investment is not 10 percent. If we consider the real rate of return, which is interest rate ­
rate of inflation, you would see that you need to invest twice as much to guard yourself against inflation.
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Financial Management ­ MGT201
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Another example for perpetuity is Consol Bonds. Consol Bonds were issued by the British
Government in 18th century to pay off the smaller bonds that were issued to fund the wars against
France. Since the purpose of the bond was to consolidate the past debts, it was named as Consol. These
bonds were just like other bonds issued by the government, with the difference that it had no maturity. It
implies that the holder of the bond was to receive regular interest payments for an endless period.
Now if we have to invest in such a bond we need to know the price or the present value of the
bond. Dividing the interest payment that a Consol bondholder would receive, by the interest rate, we can
find the present value of a Consol bond. Suppose that the interest rate is at 10 percent and the promised
interest payments to be received are £ 1,000 every year, the price of the bond can be calculated as under
·  PV = CCF / i = 1,000/ 0.10 = £ 10,000
With this example, the discussion on discounted cash flows, annuities, and perpetuities is
concluded. We would study the capital budgeting techniques in the next lecture.
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Table of Contents:
  1. INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT:Corporate Financing & Capital Structure,
  2. OBJECTIVES OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, FINANCIAL ASSETS AND FINANCIAL MARKETS:Real Assets, Bond
  3. ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS:Basic Financial Statements, Profit & Loss account or Income Statement
  4. TIME VALUE OF MONEY:Discounting & Net Present Value (NPV), Interest Theory
  5. FINANCIAL FORECASTING AND FINANCIAL PLANNING:Planning Documents, Drawback of Percent of Sales Method
  6. PRESENT VALUE AND DISCOUNTING:Interest Rates for Discounting Calculations
  7. DISCOUNTING CASH FLOW ANALYSIS, ANNUITIES AND PERPETUITIES:Multiple Compounding
  8. CAPITAL BUDGETING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING TECHNIQUES:Techniques of capital budgeting, Pay back period
  9. NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) AND INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (IRR):RANKING TWO DIFFERENT INVESTMENTS
  10. PROJECT CASH FLOWS, PROJECT TIMING, COMPARING PROJECTS, AND MODIFIED INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (MIRR)
  11. SOME SPECIAL AREAS OF CAPITAL BUDGETING:SOME SPECIAL AREAS OF CAPITAL BUDGETING, SOME SPECIAL AREAS OF CAPITAL BUDGETING
  12. CAPITAL RATIONING AND INTERPRETATION OF IRR AND NPV WITH LIMITED CAPITAL.:Types of Problems in Capital Rationing
  13. BONDS AND CLASSIFICATION OF BONDS:Textile Weaving Factory Case Study, Characteristics of bonds, Convertible Bonds
  14. BONDS’ VALUATION:Long Bond - Risk Theory, Bond Portfolio Theory, Interest Rate Tradeoff
  15. BONDS VALUATION AND YIELD ON BONDS:Present Value formula for the bond
  16. INTRODUCTION TO STOCKS AND STOCK VALUATION:Share Concept, Finite Investment
  17. COMMON STOCK PRICING AND DIVIDEND GROWTH MODELS:Preferred Stock, Perpetual Investment
  18. COMMON STOCKS – RATE OF RETURN AND EPS PRICING MODEL:Earnings per Share (EPS) Pricing Model
  19. INTRODUCTION TO RISK, RISK AND RETURN FOR A SINGLE STOCK INVESTMENT:Diversifiable Risk, Diversification
  20. RISK FOR A SINGLE STOCK INVESTMENT, PROBABILITY GRAPHS AND COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION
  21. 2- STOCK PORTFOLIO THEORY, RISK AND EXPECTED RETURN:Diversification, Definition of Terms
  22. PORTFOLIO RISK ANALYSIS AND EFFICIENT PORTFOLIO MAPS
  23. EFFICIENT PORTFOLIOS, MARKET RISK AND CAPITAL MARKET LINE (CML):Market Risk & Portfolio Theory
  24. STOCK BETA, PORTFOLIO BETA AND INTRODUCTION TO SECURITY MARKET LINE:MARKET, Calculating Portfolio Beta
  25. STOCK BETAS &RISK, SML& RETURN AND STOCK PRICES IN EFFICIENT MARKS:Interpretation of Result
  26. SML GRAPH AND CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL:NPV Calculations & Capital Budgeting
  27. RISK AND PORTFOLIO THEORY, CAPM, CRITICISM OF CAPM AND APPLICATION OF RISK THEORY:Think Out of the Box
  28. INTRODUCTION TO DEBT, EFFICIENT MARKETS AND COST OF CAPITAL:Real Assets Markets, Debt vs. Equity
  29. WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC):Summary of Formulas
  30. BUSINESS RISK FACED BY FIRM, OPERATING LEVERAGE, BREAK EVEN POINT& RETURN ON EQUITY
  31. OPERATING LEVERAGE, FINANCIAL LEVERAGE, ROE, BREAK EVEN POINT AND BUSINESS RISK
  32. FINANCIAL LEVERAGE AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE:Capital Structure Theory
  33. MODIFICATIONS IN MILLAR MODIGLIANI CAPITAL STRUCTURE THEORY:Modified MM - With Bankruptcy Cost
  34. APPLICATION OF MILLER MODIGLIANI AND OTHER CAPITAL STRUCTURE THEORIES:Problem of the theory
  35. NET INCOME AND TAX SHIELD APPROACHES TO WACC:Traditionalists -Real Markets Example
  36. MANAGEMENT OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE:Practical Capital Structure Management
  37. DIVIDEND PAYOUT:Other Factors Affecting Dividend Policy, Residual Dividend Model
  38. APPLICATION OF RESIDUAL DIVIDEND MODEL:Dividend Payout Procedure, Dividend Schemes for Optimizing Share Price
  39. WORKING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT:Impact of working capital on Firm Value, Monthly Cash Budget
  40. CASH MANAGEMENT AND WORKING CAPITAL FINANCING:Inventory Management, Accounts Receivables Management:
  41. SHORT TERM FINANCING, LONG TERM FINANCING AND LEASE FINANCING:
  42. LEASE FINANCING AND TYPES OF LEASE FINANCING:Sale & Lease-Back, Lease Analyses & Calculations
  43. MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS:Leveraged Buy-Outs (LBO’s), Mergers - Good or Bad?
  44. INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (MULTINATIONAL FINANCE):Major Issues Faced by Multinationals
  45. FINAL REVIEW OF ENTIRE COURSE ON FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT:Financial Statements and Ratios