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ROOTS OF CHAOS: TINY ACTS OR GIANT MIS-STEPS?

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Lesson 4
ROOTS OF CHAOS: TINY ACTS OR GIANT MIS-STEPS?
(This text is reproduced from the book: "From chaos to catharsis: perspectives on democracy and
development" by Javed Jabbar, published by Royal Book Company, Karachi, 1996). There is a temptation to
formulate a theory of political chaos on lines similar to the scientific theory of chaos.
First: what is the theory of chaos?
The roots of this theory go to 1961.
Edward Lorenz was a meteorologist working at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Fascinated by the
elusive ideal of accurate weather prediction, he had designed, one year earlier, a system to create "toy
weather".
By this process he fed hypothetical data into a Royal Mcbee computer that simulated different types of
weather. He then studied the consequence of variations introduced into the data e.g. how would the altered
speed of a cyclone affect the level of humidity in its aftermath? One day, after obtaining a print-out from the
computer of a particular "toy weather", he wanted to study a section in greater detail. He therefore re-fed into
the computer the same set of numbers he had fed in earlier. He stepped out briefly and returned -- to
discover a whole new subject!
Instead of duplicating the earlier "toy weather" pattern, this second pattern had begun to diverge from the
first one initially in a small way, but significantly thereafter. Soon, the two types of "toy weather" appeared to
be dramatically different from each other, even though the numbers for the data were the same. When
Lorenz checked each single decimal place of the numbers fed into the computer, he discovered that instead
of typing out the complete set of six decimal places which, in this case, were 0.506127...He had actually
stopped at506, assuming that the last three decimal places i.e. 127 did not really matter because the difference
of those last three decimal places i.e. 127 was, he assumed, inconsequential, being only one part in a thousand.
By re-feeding all the six decimal places, Lorenz obtained the original "toy weather" pattern, whereas when he
repeated the omission of the last three decimal places, the divergence accelerated rapidly.
This was conclusive proof that a miniscule variation at one stage of a phenomenon could rapidly become a
magnificent distraction at a later stage.
Lorenz and other scientists working in different fields went forward from here to discover the fact that in
nature, chaos has its own specific structure that order can masquerade as randomness, that there is
mathematics of systems that never repeat themselves that a seemingly irrelevant minor action in one part may
precipitate a major cataclysm in another part. There are some who now give the study of chaos the same
importance in science as relativity and quantum mechanics. Discoveries in this science continue to expand
human knowledge of the postulates that emerge from the science of chaos, three may be relevant to note in
the context of Pakistan.
a) That tiny differences in in-put quickly lead to overwhelming differences in output.
b) That small errors can prove to be catastrophic.
c) That there is a sensitive dependence in phenomena on initial conditions.
The first two of these principles when applied to the genesis and early growth of our country are the most
difficult to detect because our history is replete with so many large and monumental blunders that the small
ones may not really matter.
The whole process of Independence was speeded up so dramatically in the months proceeding August 14,
1947 that no one, not even the Quaid-i-Azam, was able to write a detailed script... For all the participants to
follow Leaders began to depart from an unwritten script from the very start. Yet even though there was no
written script, there was a shared vision.
Pakistan was inspired by a 1300-year-old legacy of what it means to be Muslim, but when it came to its
physical creation, the invention of Pakistan was almost impromptu. As has been well said by the Czech
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novelist Milan Kundera: individuals make up the story of their lives as they go along, improvising each
movement and each year...because there is no dress rehearsal before we are delivered into this planet to
proceed with our path through life. Yet a nation-State being a giant extension of a single individual on the
scale of millions requires a fairly precise framework when it is formed. Due to a variety of reasons we In the
shadow of our large omissions, lapses and losses, there must also have been those one or two or three
decimal places of our destiny that were overlooked or by-passed or suppressed and thus never got fed into
the computation of the factors that shaped our history began with neither a Constitution nor early or
immediate elections, neither a grassroots political party structure of the Muslim League nor longevity for our
founding father who left us tragically early.
In the shadow of our large omissions, lapses and losses, there must also have been those one or two or three
decimal places of our destiny that were overlooked or by-passed or suppressed and thus never got fed into
the computation of the factors that shaped our history. What could these terrible trivia have been? A slight
hesitation about an issue on which there can only be a certainty. A silent acquiescence at a high level in what
appeared to be a relatively......minor transgression of an ethical boundary that may then have seemed like a
little hole in a huge dam but which soon became a yawning gap through which has rushed a mountainous
flood or moral slush and grime into which we sank? Such marginal departures from an unwritten script may
well have become those innocuous looking "tiny differences in input" that led to the output or outcome
of a Pakistan so vastly different from the original dream about it. The trouble with really small errors is that it
is very difficult to spot them from a distance of 58 years. Because they are, to begin with, small, they
invariably get trampled upon and the big ones come to the front of the queue.
Perhaps the crucial small errors made in those times are lost forever to history. There were so many factors
and perspectives related to the circumstances in which Pakistan was born that each factor in
turn......spawned a cluster of potentially correct as well as potentially disastrous decisions: only a few seen
and recorded for history, many remaining confined to the privacy of one-to-one conversations......or to the
perceptions of a single individual or deliberately suppressed from public knowledge by the conspiracy of a
coterie.
This brings us sequentially and most aptly to the third principle: the sensitive dependence on initial
conditions. And with this element there appears a supreme synthesis between the science......of chaos and
the birth of Pakistan. Possibly no other State saw the light of day in the manner we did because the light
actually turned out to be darkness at noon.
In a sense we are children born by Caesarian section in the blazing heat of the midday sun, not in the cool
darkness wishfully associated with midnight's children. The one factor that shaped the whole pattern of the
initial conditions of the State of Pakistan was the arbitrary, unwise decision by the British to advance the
deadline for Independence to August 1947. That singularly inept decision set in motion a whole process of
increasing tension eventually snow-balling into widespread turbulence and upheaval. The passion for Pakistan
incongruously came hand in hand with a lust for blood at the time of Partition. We did not fight an
ennobling War of Independence in 1947: thousands indulged in......degrading mass homicide in the name of
freedom. Instead of beginning our new lives with stars of honour, many of us began with the indelible stains
of suffering.
The trauma was not a transient, momentary experience: it seems to have quickly become an enduring state of
mind. Each of the initial factors, taken separately, represents enormous problems in themselves. Their
coming together all at the same time had a cumulative and debilitating impact on......the spiritual, intellectual
and physical resources of a political leadership that, except for the Quaid-i-Azam, was largely feudal and
therefore in a sense too fragile to bear the brunt of......such a big challenge. Indeed, it is a miracle that we
did survive the trauma of our birth and the tragedy of our first few years. As we pay tribute to the Quaid and
his immediate lieutenants for their heroic contribution to our Independence, we must at the same time
question the conduct of certain senior leaders who, in real terms......almost immediately after August 14,
1947 began to betray the trust reposed in them by the Quaid-i-Azam and by the people. By their preference
for personal power, by their disregard for democratic norms......by their refusal to immediately institute an
electoral and accountable system, by their provincial, parochial and factional attitudes they injected into those
initial days of Pakistan a virus of discord that came......to infect our bloodstream with an illness from which
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we have yet to recover. As we proceed to explore the prospects for a political theory of chaos it is quite
apparent that......we have yet to conduct a really incisive and truthful investigation of our own history.
We tend to gloss over some uncomfortable, undeniable truths and we have created some sacred cows that
stand in the middle of the road to rationality and block our path to improve self-perception.
At this stage three postulates for a political theory of chaos emerge:
i)
Even a seemingly small act by a political leader, particularly in power, done beyond the ethical
boundary that demarcates pure propriety, becomes the seed of widespread moral disequilibrium
across the country.
ii)
Chaos is a vicious circle that can only be broken by political action whose integrity is so solid that it
cuts through to the core of the chaos like a diamond.
iii)
Injustice inflicted upon a single poor and powerless individual early in a nation's history by one who
is permitted to remain unpunished soon swells to become an obese State-wide system of oppression
that can enslave a whole nation.
While it is tempting to speculate that a nation's destiny may well be determined by the timing and the
conditions of its birth and the situation shortly thereafter, thus making our prognosis bleak, we also
take......comfort from examples where independent nations gone adrift and asunder have been transformed
by the will of individuals who suddenly appear on the horizon. We know that we cannot re-do the manner of
our birth and the reality of our early upbringing. But perhaps we can transcend them. To do so, some
fundamental re-assessments are essential -- of concepts as well as constitutions.
Conclusion:
We must put our predilection for chaos to good use and experience it as catharsis, we must re-discover our
distorted past to build a coherent new persona for Pakistan.
Excerpts from books for this hand-out:
Excerpt provided from: "Chaos ­ making a new science" by James Gleick, published by Penguin Books,
1987.
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Table of Contents:
  1. THE UNIQUE NATURE OF THE PAKISTANI NATION-STATE
  2. “PAKISTAN: THE FIRST 11 YEARS 1947-1958” PART 1
  3. “PAKISTAN: THE FIRST 11 YEARS 1947-1958”PART-2
  4. ROOTS OF CHAOS: TINY ACTS OR GIANT MIS-STEPS?
  5. “FROM NEW HOPES TO SHATTERED DREAMS: 1958-1971”
  6. “RENEWING PAKISTAN: 1971-2005” PART-I: 1971-1988
  7. RENEWING PAKISTAN: PART II 1971-2005 (1988-2005)
  8. THE CONSTITUTION OF PAKISTAN, PARTS I & II
  9. THE CONSTITUTION OF PAKISTAN, PARTS I & II:Changing the Constitution
  10. THE POLITICAL SYSTEM OF PAKISTAN:Senate Polls: Secrecy Breeds Distortion
  11. THE ELECTION COMMISSION OF PAKISTAN:A new role for the Election Commission
  12. “POLITICAL GROUPINGS AND ALLIANCES: ISSUES AND PERSPECTIVES”
  13. THE LEGISLATIVE PROCESS AND INTEREST GROUPS
  14. “THE POPULATION, EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS OF PAKISTAN”
  15. THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENT POLICY 2005:Environment and Housing
  16. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY 2005:The National Policy, Sectoral Guidelines
  17. THE CHILDREN OF PAKISTAN:Law Reforms, National Plan of Action
  18. “THE HEALTH SECTOR OF PAKISTAN”
  19. NGOS AND DEVELOPMENT
  20. “THE INFORMATION SECTOR OF PAKISTAN”
  21. MEDIA AS ELEMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER:Directions of National Security
  22. ONE GLOBE: MANY WORLDS
  23. “THE UNITED NATIONS” PART-1
  24. “THE UNITED NATIONS” PART-2
  25. “MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS (MDGS)”:Excerpt
  26. “THE GLOBALIZATION: THREATS AND RESPONSES – PART-1”:The Services of Nature
  27. THE GLOBALIZATION: THREATS AND RESPONSES – PART-2”
  28. “WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION (WTO)”
  29. “THE EUROPEAN UNION”:The social dimension, Employment Policy
  30. “REGIONAL PACTS”:North America’s Second Decade, Mind the gap
  31. “OIC: ORGANIZATION OF THE ISLAMIC CONFERENCE”
  32. “FROM SOUTH ASIA TO SAARC”:Update
  33. “THE PAKISTAN-INDIA RELATIONSHIP”
  34. “DIMENSIONS OF TERRORISM”
  35. FROM VIOLENT CONFLICT TO PEACEFUL CO-EXISTENCE
  36. “OIL AND BEYOND”
  37. “PAKISTAN’S FOREIGN POLICY”
  38. “EMERGING TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS”
  39. “GLOBALIZATION OF MEDIA”
  40. “GLOBALIZATION AND INDIGENIZATION OF MEDIA”
  41. “BALANCING PUBLIC INTERESTS AND COMMERCIAL INTERESTS”
  42. “CITIZENS’ MEDIA AND CITIZENS’ MEDIA DIALOGUE”
  43. “CITIZENS’ MEDIA RIGHTS AND RESPONSIBILITIES”Exclusive Membership
  44. “CITIZENS’ PARTICIPATION IN PUBLIC SERVICE BROADCASTING”:Forming a Group
  45. “MEDIA IN THE 21ST CENTURY”