# Introduction to Sociology

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Introduction to Sociology ­ SOC101
VU
Lesson 37
POPULATION PROFILE OF PAKISTAN
How does population grow?
Prior to the discussion of the population profile of Pakistan let us see how does population grow? If we are
looking at the world population growth then it is simply:
Births ­ Deaths in a year per1000 population. Suppose births in a year are 40 and deaths are 10 then 40 ­ 10
= 30 per 1000 population or 3.0 per cent growth rate per annum. (Population growth rate is presented in
percentages).
For a country population growth rate is calculated as: Births ­ Deaths + (immigration ­ emigration).
For a province or district population growth within a country: Births ­ Deaths + (immigration ­
emigration) + (In-migration ­ Out-migration). In-migration and out-migration is the internal migration
within the country.
Urban area population growth within a country: Births ­ Deaths + (immigration ­emigration) + (In-
migration ­ Out-migration) + Expansion in the urban area.
Suppose the population grows at 3 percent per annum, what does it mean?
It means the population would double in 23 years. How? The formula is very simple:
Just divide 70 years by the rate of growth: 70/3 = 23 years.
It may be called LAW OF SEVENTY.
World Population Growth
Population growth trends show that the world population in 1950 was 2.5 billion which increased to 6.296
billion in 2003, showing 152 percent increase (see fig. 1). In the less developed countries, during the same
period, the population increased from 1.7 billion to 5.098 billion, showing an increase of 200 percent.
Compared with them in the more developed countries, during the same period, the population increased
from 0.8 billion to 1.198 billion, indicating only a 50 percent increase. These figures suggest that the world
population is increasing very fast; and the biggest contribution to this increase is being made by the less
developed countries.
Figure 1
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Introduction to Sociology ­ SOC101
VU
Population has been growing slowly in the past. It took thousands of years for the world population to
reach the figure of 1 billion, which was estimated to be in the year1804 (see table 1). It took only 123 year
to add the second billion to the population of this planet and that happened in 1927. For the addition of
third billion it took only 33 years and that happened in 1960. The population of the world has been
growing so fast that for the addition of fourth billion it took only 13 years which was in 1974. For the
addition of fifth billion it took only 12 years and that was in 1987. Within the next 12 years the world
population has seen the addition of sixth billion, which happened in 1999. Presently we have more than 6
billion people living on this planet earth and the population is still growing.
Table 1: Time taken to add one billion to world population
_____________
.___________________
______Year
World Population
Years____
1804
1
---
1927
2
123
1960
3
33
1974
4
14
1987
5
13
.
1999
6
12 .
.
In table 2 it is interesting to note that the more developed regions have less population (1198 million in
2003) and high GNP/capita (\$ 22060 in 2002) compared with less developed regions (population 5098
million and GNP/capita of \$3580).
Table 2: Population and GNP/capita
___________________________________________________________________
Population
GNP/
Region
(million) 2003
Capita (\$) 2000
World
6296
7140
More Dev
1198
22060
Less Dev
5098
3580
Specifically talking about Pakistan, table 3 shows that the country has an area of 0.796 million sq. kilometers
which comes to be 0.6 percent of the world. With respect to population it had reached an estimated 151
million people in 2004 which was 2.4 percent of the world population.
Table 3: Pakistan: Share of the World 2004
__________________________________________________________________
Area
0.796 Million Sq. Km.
0.6 %
Population
151 Million
2.4 %
.
.
Information provided in table 4 shows that in 2003 the world population was growing at the rate of 1.3
percent and it was expected that it will take 54 years to double it population. Since the more developed
regions of the world have been growing at the rate of only 0.1 percent therefore it will take a very long
period (700 years) to double its population. Compared with them the less developed regions have been
growing at the rate of 1.6 percent, therefore they will take comparatively shorter time to double their
population (44 years).
In 2003 Pakistan had a population of 148.6 million, which was growing at the rate of 2.06 percent, and it
was estimated that its population will double in 34 years. Compared with other countries in the region like
Bangladesh, Iran, India, and Indonesia, Pakistan has higher rate of population growth, therefore it is likely
to take shorter period to double than the said countries.
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Introduction to Sociology ­ SOC101
VU
Table 4: Population, rate of growth and doubling time, 2003
________________________________________________________________________
Population
Growth Doubling
Regions
(Million)
Rate (%)
Time (years.)
World
6296
1.3
54
More Developed
1198
0.1
700
Less Developed
5098
1.6
44
.
Pakistan
148.6
2.06
34
.
136
1.7
41
Iran
66
1.2
58
India
1067
1.7
41
Indonesia
220
1.6
44  .
The population of the country is increasing quite rapidly. Table 5 shows that in 1950 Pakistan with 33
million people was at 14th place in population rank order of the countries. In 2004 with 151 million people,
by surpassing China, India, USA, Indonesia, and Brazil, Pakistan was at 6th place in population rank order of
the countries. During the last 54 years the population of the country has increased about five times.
Table 5: Pakistan's population rank order in the world
_______________________________________________________________________
.
Year
Rank
Population (Million)
1950
14
33
.
2004
6*
151
* After China, India, USA, Indonesia, and Brazil having surpassed Japan, Bangladesh, Nigeria,
Russia, etc.
Prior to 1961-71 decade the rate of growth has been lower than what has been found in 2004. One of the
important reasons was the high death rate which had been neutralizing the high birth rate. In line with the
theory of demographic transition the death rate falls earlier than a decline in the birth rate and also the death
rate declines sharply thereby creating a big gap between the birth rate and the death rate resulting in
relatively high growth rate. Pakistan has been certainly passing through demographic transition as one can
see a rise in population growth during the census period of 1961-72 (3.66), then tapering of during 1972-
81(3.05), and then further decline (2.69) during 1981-1998 as well as during 2003-04 (1.9) (see table 6).
Table 6: Population growth rate in Pakistan
_______________________________________________________________________
Period
Growth Rate (%)
.
1951-61
2.45
1961-71
3.66
1972-81
3.05
1981-98
2.69
2003-04
1.90
.
Although there is some visible declining trend in the population growth rate, yet the mere fact that the
number of persons being added annually is so huge that the overall impact may not be remarkable. One
could look at the number of births that took place during the year 2002. The data presented in table 7 show
that in one year 4, 366, 270 births took place which comes to as 8 births per minute being added to the
population of the country.
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Introduction to Sociology ­ SOC101
VU
Table 7: Number of births, deaths, and net addition of population during 2002
________________________________________________________________________
Time period
No. of births
No. of deaths
In One Year
4,366,270
1,222,000
3,144,270
Per Month
363,855
101,833
262, 022
Per Day
11,962
3,348
8,614
Per Minute
8
2
6
.
Looking at the number of deaths, there were 1,222,000 cases in the year 2002, which comes to 2 deaths per
minute. The resultant difference between births and deaths shows that every minute 6 persons and by the
year 3,144,270 persons were being added to the population of Pakistan. The addition of 3.14 million
persons means adding the population equal to the cities of Multan + Sukkar + Peshawar + Quetta. For
these people the government may have to arrange facilities for their decent standard of living.
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