# Introduction to Sociology

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Introduction to Sociology ­ SOC101
VU
Lesson 39
IMPLICAIONS OF POPULATION GOWTH
Population is a big reservoir of human resource for the economic development of a country. In fact it is
the quality of the human resource that makes a difference for the economy. Poor quality of this resource
could be a burden whereas high quality can be an asset. From another angle one has to see how much
income is to be distributed among how many people. Same amount of income distributed among a large
number of people brings smaller per head share compared with if there is a smaller number of people who
have to share the said income. One has to see at what rate income is increasing and at what rate population
is increasing. Look at the information provided in table 1. Gross domestic product (GDP) of Pakistan has
increased from Rs. 20 billion in 1950 to Rs. 4018 billion in 2003 which is a 200 percent increase. But when
we look at the per capita income it increased from \$ 79 in 1950 to \$ 492 in 2005 which is only 6 percent
increase during this period. Though there is a 200 percent increase in the GDP but when we try to
distribute it as per head it gives only 6 percent increase because there is so much of increase in population.
Table 1: GDP and per Capita income of Pakistan, 1950-2003
1950
2003
Increase
.
GDP
20*
4018*
200
Per capita income
79^
492^
6
.
* In billion Rs. ^ In US \$
South Korea and Pakistan are often capered with respect to population change and per capita income
change. One reason for this comparison is that the two countries were similar in population size and in per
capita income in 1951. Table 2 shows that in 1951 the population of Pakistan was 33 million and that of
South Korea was 20 million. In
Table 2: Comparison of Pakistan with South Korea
1951
2004
___________________
________________________
Pakistan
S. Korea
Pakistan
S. Korea
Population
33 million
20 million
151 million
47.7 million
GDP
\$ 79
\$ 82
\$ 503
\$10, 700
2004 the population of Pakistan increased to 151 million and that of South Korea it went up only to 47.7
million. Compared with Pakistan this is very small increase. With respect to gross domestic product (GDP)
in 1951 Pakistan had \$79 and South Korea had \$ 82. In 2004 the GDP of Pakistan increased to \$ 503 and
that of South Korea to \$ 10,700. The big increase in population of Pakistan gave a smaller per capita GDP
whereas a smaller increase in population of South Korea gave a bigger per head increase in GDP.
Another implication of population growth may be seen with respect to the status of employment and
unemployment. In 1970-71 there were 18.5 million employed people in Pakistan which increased to 39.4
million which is about two times increase (see fig. 1). It is interesting to note in 1970-71 there were 0.4
million unemployed people which increased to 3.3 million showing 8 times increase in unemployment.
Such an ironical increase in unemployment has emerged due a rapid increase in population
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Introduction to Sociology ­ SOC101
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An increase in population has a negative impact on the size of farms. Due to the law of inheritance, on the
death of the owner the landholding is divided among the heirs as provided in the law of inheritance. The
information provided in table 3 shows that the number of farms under 3 acres has increased between 1980
and 1990. The small size farms become smaller and smaller and ultimately become uneconomic for
purposes of cultivation. It affects the employment of the owners, agricultural production, and economy of
the country.
Table3: Number of private farms by size
Farm size
1980
1990
(acres)
Number
%
Number
%
(million)
(million)
Under 3 Acres
2.07
50.90
3.25
64.10
3-5
0.92
22.60
0.86
17.00
5-10
0.71
17.40
0.62
12.20
10+
0.37
9.15
0.34
6.80
Total
4.07
100.0
5.07
100.0
The population projections show that the population of Pakistan is likely to increase rapidly and is expected
to reach the figure of 170.1 million by the year 2010, the year when the government of Pakistan expects
some stabilization in population growth (see figure 3).
Figure 3: Population Projection, 1998-2010 (in millions)
170.1
166.5
163.0
159.4
155.8
152.3
148.8
145.4
142.0
138.7
135.5
132.3
129.2
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Pakistan has young population, 43 percent being under 15 years of age. Among these children 5-14 year
olds are supposed to be in school, therefore they need school facilities. In 1998 the number children aged
5-14 years was 31.7 million. It has been projected that by the year 2010 their number is likely to increase to
40.3 million (see fig. 4).
Of these children there were 11.9 million who were supposed to be in primary school. This number is likely
to increase to 20.3 million by the year 2010 (see fig.5). They will certainly be in need of primary school
facilities if we want them to be in school. One of the facilities is the availability of teachers. In 1998 there
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Introduction to Sociology ­ SOC101
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were 11.9 million primary school teachers. In order to meet the requirements in 2010 the country shall be
in need of 20.3 million primary teachers (see fig. 6).
Another important requirement is the availability of schools. In 1998 the required number of schools was
79 thousand. To cater to the needs of the projected increase of school going children, the country shall
need 162.6 thousand additional schools (see fig. 7).  For the creation of primary school facilities the
expenditure needed in 2010 shall be Rs. 68 billion (see fig. 8).
Figure 4: Population aged 5-14 years, 1998-2010 (in millions)
40.0
40.2
40.3
39.8
39.6
39.3
39.1
38.8
38.1
37.2
36.4
35.6
34.7
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Figure 5: Primary school students, 1998-2010(in millions)
20.3
19.4
18.5
18.0
17.5
17.1
16.6
16.1
15.3
14.4
13.5
12.7
11.9
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
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Figure 6: Primary Teachers Required, 1998-2010 (in 000)
162.6
152.8
143.3
137.2
131.6
126.1
120.7
115.3
107.7
100.1
92.8
85.7
79.0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Figure 7: Primary Schools Required 1998-2010 (in 000)
68.0
61.7
55.8
51.3
47.3
43.6
40.3
37.3
33.7
30.2
27.1
24.1
21.3
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Health is another social sector which has to feel the impact of the growth of population.
In 1998 there was a need for 20.2 thousand doctors' production and management. With the increase in
population this need is likely to increase to 45.4 thousand by the year 2010 (see fig. 9). The annual recurrent
expenditure required for this facility was 3.7 billion in 1998 which is likely to increase to 13.5 billion by the
year 2010 (see fig. 10). Then one looks into the question: will Pakistan be able to allocate that amount of
resources in this sector.
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Figure 8: Doctors production and management, 1998-2010 (in 000)
250.2
220.1
195.6
175.2
157.9
143.3
130.6
119.5
109.8
101.2
93.6
86.8
80.7
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
We have already seen in a previous lecture that in Pakistan 3 million people are being added every year.
Presently GDP/per capita in the country is US \$ 652. To provide the same amount per capita GDP for this
annual increase in population is (652 x 3 =) \$1.956 In order to create additional GDP of \$1.956 billion to
maintain the current per capita GDP, Pakistan needs an additional investment \$5.868 billion annually. Will
we be able to make such annual investment?
Hard Facts
Given the rate of increase in population growth, economic development, and social sector development, the
hard facts are:
Population
·
Population living below poverty line
49 million
·
54 million
·
Population with one room houses
56 million
·
Population with no sanitation
76 million
·
Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births)
80
·
Maternal Mortality Rate (per 100,000 live births)
350-500
·
Deliveries at home (%)
76
·
Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births)
80
·
Maternal Mortality Rate (per 100,000 live births)
350-500
·
Deliveries at home (%)
76
Environment
·
Forest Cover
·  At less than 5% of the total surface area is being reduced by 2.5% - 3.1% per year ,
which is the 2nd highest deforestation rate in the world.
·
·  38% of the irrigated land is water logged and 14% is saline.
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·  Air Pollution
·  Suspended particle matters in air in most urban centers are 6.4 times higher than
WHO guidelines.
·  Traffic Increase
·  0.8million to 4.0 million over last 20 years  500 % increase.
Summary of Implications
Shortage
Educational facilities
·
Living Space
·
·
Health Services
Arable Land
·
·
Housing Units
Clean water
·
Food
Increase
·
·
Unemployment
Over crowding
·
·
Land fragmentation
·
·
Import of food
Poverty
·
·
Environmental problems
Unrest
·
·
Congestion in households
Crime
Conclusions
·
Issues related to population need to be advocated for from the top level of the government;
·
The public sector allocations for social sectors remain very low and need to be enhanced;
·
Population needs to be taken up as a core basis for any future development planning;
·