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GROUP DECISION MAKING AND CREATIVITY:Delphi Method, Scenario Analysis

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Principles of Management ­ MGT503
VU
Lesson 7.19
GROUP DECISION MAKING AND CREATIVITY
Group Decision making
Decisions on all levels of organization are frequently made by groups.
C.
Group decision making has several advantages and disadvantages over individual decision
making.
3.
Some advantages of group decision making include
e)
Groups bring more diverse information and knowledge to bear on the
question under consideration.
f)
An increased number of alternatives can be developed.
g)
Greater understanding and acceptance of the final decision are likely.
h)
Members develop knowledge and skill for future use.
4.
Group decision making has several disadvantages when compared to individual
decision making.
e)
Group decision making is more time consuming.
f)
Disagreements may delay decisions and cause hard feelings.
g)
The discussion may be dominated by one or a few group members.
h)
Groupthink is the tendency in cohesive groups to seeks agreement about
an issue at the expense of realistically appraising the situation.
D.
Managers can enhance group decision-making processes by taking steps to avoid the
pitfalls of group decision making.
4.
Individuals should be involved only if they have information and knowledge
relevant to the decision.
5.
The composition of the group should reflect the diversity of the broader
workgroup. Heterogeneous groups have been found to be more effective over
time than groups with the same nationality and ethnic backgrounds.
6.
Two tactics are available to avoid groupthink
(a) Devil's advocates are individuals who are assigned the role of making sure than the negative aspects of
any attractive decision alternatives are considered.
(b)Dialectical inequity is a procedure in which a decision situation is
approached from two opposite points of view.
E.
Several groupware software packages are now available to enable managers to make use of
recent advances in information technology that enables groups to utilize computers in their
decision making.
Teleconferencing enables groups to "meet" electronically-either by conference
1.
phone hookups or through computer networks.
Group decision support systems are new specialized computer-based information
2.
systems which support groups working on less well defined problems.
3.
Computer aids to group decision making seem to increase creativity. However,
face-to-face meeting still tend to show stronger consensus and satisfaction among
members of the group
The Creativity Factor in Decision Making
Innovation is important to organizational success in the marketplace.
A.
Creativity versus Innovation.
There is a difference between creativity and innovation.
1.
Creativity is the ability to combine ideas in a unique way or to make unusual associations between
ideas.
2.
Innovation is the process of taking a creative idea and turning it into a useful product, service, or
method of operation.
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Principles of Management ­ MGT503
VU
Creativity is the cognitive process of developing an idea, concept, commodity, or discovery that is viewed
as novel by its creator or a target audience.
A.
Creativity requires both convergent and divergent thinking.
1.
Convergent thinking is the effort to solve problems by beginning with a problem
and attempting to move logically to a solution.
2.
Divergent thinking is the effort to solve problems by generating new ways of
viewing a problem and seeking novel alternatives.
B.
Creativity has three necessary ingredients.
1.
Domain-relevant skills are those associated with expertise in the relevant field.
2.
Creativity-relevant skills include a cognitive style, or method of thinking that is
oriented to exploring new directions, knowledge of approaches that can be used
for generating novel ideas, and a work style that is conducive to developing
creative ideas.
3.
Task motivation is interest in the task for its own sake, rather than because of
some external reward possibility, such as more
C.
An individual's creative process has several stages.
1.
Preparation involves the individual's immersion in every aspect of a problem
through
a.
Gathering initial information
b.
Generating alternatives
c.
Seeking and analyzing further data relating to the problem.
2.
Incubation involves a rest from consciously focusing on the problem as
subconscious mental activities and divergent thinking take over.
3.
Illumination is often experienced as a breakthrough as a new level of insight is
achieved.
4.
Verification involves testing the ideas to determine the validity of the insight.
F.
Group creativity can be enhanced by means of a number of techniques. Two of which are
following:
1.
Brainstorming is a means of enhancing creativity that encourages group
members to generate as many novel ideas as possible on a given topic without
evaluating them.
a.
The ground rules used in brainstorming were described earlier in this
chapter.
b.
Computer assisted brainstorming have been found to give superior
results.
2.
The Nominal Group Technique (NGT) is a means of enhancing creativity and
decision making that integrates both individual work and group interaction within
certain ground rules.
a.
NGT was developed to foster creativity and to overcome the tendency to criticize ideas when they
are presented
b.
The ground rules of NGT are:
1)
Individuals independently prepare a list of their ideas on a
problem.
2)
Group members present their ideas one at a time in turn, and
ideas are listed for all to see.
3)
Members discuss the ideas to clarify and evaluate them.
4)
Individuals vote silently using a rating procedure.
c.
Recent research suggests that NGT is superior to brainstorming groups in
generating ideas but not so when compared to computer-assisted
brainstorming.
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Principles of Management ­ MGT503
VU
Lateral Thinking Vs Vertical Thinking
Vertical thinking is logical but only in one direction. You ignore the possibilities and alternatives around you
or various other ways of doing same thing. Vertical way of thinking is the problem solving way the way
computers do.
Rotating a problem from different angles to try and locate alternative points of entry involves Lateral
thinking. This is a creative processing that the human mind can do, but computers are generally unable to
do. It is useful when one channel of thought reaches a dead end and another approach is needed. It can be
difficult but satisfying to solve and will encourage you to examine lots of different clues and information
without any prejudice. Thinking laterally and avoiding the obvious is a great tool in life of a manager. This
thinking asks you generate 3-4 alternatives to a given problem and then try one option at a time to put into
action and see the results for best.
Other Decision Making Methods
1.
Delphi Method:
The Delphi method is a structured approach to gain the judgments of a number of experts on a specific
issue relating to the future.
a.
A panel of experts is surveyed in the interest of compiling a list of likely
scientific breakthroughs and the predicted time of their occurrence.
b.
The resultant list is resubmitted to the experts who then estimate whether
the predicated breakthroughs are likely to occur earlier or later than the
average estimated time frame.
c.
The next set of results is again submitted to the experts.
1)
If a consensus is reached, dissenters are asked to explain why they
disagree with the majority.
2)
If there is a wide divergence of opinion this step is repeated.
2.
Scenario Analysis:
The Scenario analysis, developed in France, approach addresses a variety of possible futures by evaluating
major environmental variables, assessing the likely strategies of other significant factors (e.g., other
organizations), devising possible counter strategies, developing ranked hypotheses about the variables, and
formulating alternative scenarios.
a.
Scenarios are outlines of possible future conditions, including possible
paths the organization could take that would likely lead to these
conditions.
b.
One object of the method is to enable the organization to make decisions
that do not greatly inhibit further freedom of choice
Deming's TOOL FOR Improvement and Innovation:
PDCA or PDSA i.e. Planning, Doing, Checking/Studying and Acting are the four activities which Dr.
Deming taught to Japanese companies to solve work related daily and yearly problems. When the tool i1s
deployed out in a cyclic fashion will lead to improvement and innovation in every process and work area of
the organization. This is one of the well known quality management tool.
Questions and Answers
1.
Differentiate between creativity and innovation.
Creativity is the ability to combine ideas in a unique way or to make unusual associations between ideas.
Innovation is the process of taking a creative idea and turning it into a useful product, service, or method of
operation.
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Principles of Management ­ MGT503
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2.
How can the systems model be used to help organizations become more innovative?
In the systems model we use inputs like creative people and groups and, through a creative process or
situation, transform the inputs into the desired output such as creative products. The right environment is
also important.
3.
Describe the specific structural, cultural, and human resource variables associated with
innovation.
Variables associated with innovation are structural (organic structure, abundant resources, and high inter-
unit communication), cultural (acceptance of ambiguity, tolerance of the impractical, low external controls,
tolerance of risks, tolerance of conflicts, focus on ends, and open-system focus), and human resource (high
commitment to training and development, high job security, and creative people).
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Table of Contents:
  1. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF MANAGEMENT:The Egyptian Pyramid, Great China Wall
  2. MANAGEMENT AND MANAGERS:Why Study Management?
  3. MANAGERIAL ROLES IN ORGANIZATIONS:Informational roles, Decisional roles
  4. MANAGERIAL FUNCTIONS I.E. POLCA:Management Process, Mistakes Managers Make
  5. MANAGERIAL LEVELS AND SKILLS:Middle-level managers, Top managers
  6. MANAGEMENT IDEAS: YESTERDAY AND TODAY, Anthropology, Economics
  7. CLASSICAL VIEW OF MANAGEMENT:Scientific management
  8. ADMINISTRATIVE VIEW OF MANAGEMENT:Division of work, Authority
  9. BEHAVIORAL THEORIES OF MANAGEMENT:The Hawthorne Studies
  10. QUANTITATIVE, CONTEMPORARY AND EMERGING VIEWS OF MANAGEMENT
  11. SYSTEM’S VIEW OF MANAGEMENT AND ORGANIZATION:Managing Systems
  12. ANALYZING ORGANIZATIONAL ENVIRONMENT AND UNDERSTANDING ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE
  13. 21ST CENTURY MANAGEMENT TRENDS:Organizational social Responsibility
  14. UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT WTO AND SAARC
  15. DECISION MAKING AND DECISION TAKING
  16. RATIONAL DECISION MAKING:Models of Decision Making
  17. NATURE AND TYPES OF MANAGERIAL DECISIONS:Decision-Making Styles
  18. NON RATIONAL DECISION MAKING:Group Decision making
  19. GROUP DECISION MAKING AND CREATIVITY:Delphi Method, Scenario Analysis
  20. PLANNING AND DECISION AIDS-I:Methods of Forecasting, Benchmarking
  21. PLANNING AND DECISION AIDS-II:Budgeting, Scheduling, Project Management
  22. PLANNING: FUNCTIONS & BENEFITS:HOW DO MANAGERS PLAN?
  23. PLANNING PROCESS AND GOAL LEVELS:Types of Plans
  24. MANAGEMENT BY OBJECTIVE (MBO):Developing Plans
  25. STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT -1:THE IMPORTANCE OF STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT
  26. STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT - 2:THE STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT PROCESS
  27. LEVELS OF STRATEGIES, PORTER’S MODEL AND STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT (BCG) AND IMPLEMENTATION
  28. ENTREPRENEURSHIP MANAGEMENT:Why Is Entrepreneurship Important?
  29. ORGANIZING
  30. JOB DESIGN/SPECIALIZATION AND DEPARTMENTALIZATION
  31. SPAN OF COMMAND, CENTRALIZATION VS DE-CENTRALIZATION AND LINE VS STAFF AUTHORITY
  32. ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN AND ORGANIC VS MECHANISTIC VS VIRTUAL STRUCTURES
  33. LEADING AND LEADERSHIP MOTIVATING SELF AND OTHERS
  34. MASLOW’S NEEDS THEORY AND ITS ANALYSIS
  35. OTHER NEED AND COGNITIVE THEORIES OF MOTIVATION
  36. EXPECTANCY, GOAL SETTING AND RE-ENFORCEMENT THEORIES
  37. MOTIVATING KNOWLEDGE PROFESSIONALS LEADERSHIP TRAIT THEORIES
  38. BEHAVIORAL AND SITUATIONAL MODELS OF LEADERSHIP
  39. STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP MODELS
  40. UNDERSTANDING GROUP DYNAMICS IN ORGANIZATIONS
  41. GROUP CONCEPTS, STAGES OF GROUP DEVELOPMENT AND TEAM EFFECTIVENESS
  42. UNDERSTANDING MANAGERIAL COMMUNICATION
  43. COMMUNICATION NETWORKS AND CHANNELS EFFECT OF ICT ON MANAGERIAL COMMUNICATION
  44. CONTROLLING AS A MANAGEMENT FUNCTION:The control process
  45. CONTROLLING ORGANIZATIONAL PERFORMANCE THROUGH PRODUCTIVITY AND QUALITY