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Financial Management ­ MGT201
VU
Lesson 18
COMMON STOCKS ­ RATE OF RETURN AND EPS PRICING MODEL
Learning Objectives:
After going through this lecture, you would be able to have an understanding of the following topics
·  Common Stocks ­ Rate of Return
·  EPS Pricing Model
In this lecture, we will continue our discussion on share price valuation and we discuss the common
stock valuation in case of long term or perpetual investment.
First, we review what we have studied in the previous lecture. We have discussed 2 approaches of
perpetual common stock valuation.
1. Zero growth :
In this we assume zero growth in dividends and our formula is
Po*=DIV1 / rCE (Po* is being estimated).
2. Constant growth rate:
In this we assume that dividend is growing at constant growth rate (inflationary rate).we
can also use accounting data to calculate `g'.
g= plowback ratio x ROE.
In this particular case of constant growth model the formula for estimation of fair price is
Po*= DI V1/ (rCE -g)
Now, we have studied about estimating the fair price of the common shares under a very long
term investment but it is equally important to know the Required rate of Return (ROR).
In capital budgeting criterion, we have mentioned that we have to look both NPV as well as IRR.NPV is
the price or value of the asset or security and IRR is the measure of the rate of return of a particular asset
or project. So, we have to compute both NPV and IRR. Similarly, for the case of direct claim securities
like share we can use the same equation and we can rearrange them for the required rate of return which
is equal to rCE
The Estimated Required Rate of Return for Investment in Common Equity (rCE) can be
calculated by re-arranging the same equation:
Dividends Pricing Models:
Zero Growth:
Po*=DIV1 / rCE (Po* is being estimated)
rCE*= DIV1 / Po (rCE* is being estimated)
Similarly,
Constant Growth: Po*= DI V1/ (rCE -g)
rCE*= ( DIV 1 / Po) +
g
Div Yield
Cap.Gain Yield
This particular formula the way it is mentioned above is known as Gordon's formula and we
use this formula to calculate the required rate of return.
Gordon's Formula: Estimated Fair Present Price (or Present Value) of Share calculated using
Forecasted Future Cash Flows of Dividend Payouts to Shareholders and their growth
rCE*= (DIV 1 / Po) + g
In this the first part
(DIV 1 / Po) is the dividend yield
g is the Capital gain yield.
The reason we use these terms is that basically (DIV 1 / Po) is the fraction of the present price
which represents by the dividends.
g the capital gain yields is simply the lumped measure of expected increase in dividend that you expect
in the dividend over the life of the asset.
Now, if you see the formulas of stock valuation that we have discussed up till now. These
formulas have used forecasted dividends and that is why we called these formula dividend yield
approach to find the price. We have use dividends as a direct measure of cash flows that a stock holder
receives from the security.
We mentioned that we will calculate value of an asset or security based on cash flows it will
generates in the future. Any working asset can be valued based on its future cash flows.
So we began valuing shares based on dividend income that a share holder's receives. There is
another approach for valuing shares.
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Financial Management ­ MGT201
VU
Earnings per Share (EPS) Pricing Model:
In this our perspective is not the direct cash flows generated by the shares rather we value the
shares based on cash flows that are generated by the company whose share we are taking. In other
words, Estimated Fair Present Price of Share calculated based on Forecasted Future Cash Flows of
Company's Earnings and growth from Ploughed Back Reinvestments (from Retained Earnings). We can
do that because it is mentioned earlier that for direct claim securities like bond and stocks the value of
security can be calculated from the cash flows of underlying assets. For share the underlying assets are
the assets of the company and the cash flows generated by the assets of the company.
COMMON STOCK PRICING APPROACHES
DIVIDEND PRICING
E.P.S PRICING
Stock (Paper, Direct Claim
Real Assets & Future
Security) issued  by Company
Investments in Projects of
ABC
Company ABC
Forecasted Earnings & Sales
Forecasted Dividends
Revenue (Cash Flows generated by
(Cash Flows generated by
real business operations)
Stocks)
Present Value of Company
Present Value of a Stock
ABC (with certain number of
of Company ABC
Common Shares Outstanding)
That is the logic behind the EPS approach. Now, let's see the EPS approach to calculate the price of the
share.
EPS Approach:
In EPS approach, we estimate the price of common stock under very long term investment.
EPS Stock Price Estimation Formula
PV = Po* = EPS 1 / rCE + PVGO
Po
= Estimated Present Fair Price,
EPS 1 = Forecasted Earnings per Share in the next year (i.e. Year 1),
rCE  = Required Rate of Return on Investment in Common Stock Equity.
PVGO = Present Value of Growth Opportunities. It means the Present Value of Potential
Growth in Business from Reinvestments in New Positive NPV Projects and Investments. PVGO is
perpetuity formula.
The formula is
PVGO = NPV 1 / (rCE - g) = [-Io + (C/rCE)] / (rCE -g)
In this PVGO Model: Constant Growth "g". It is the growth in NPV of new Reinvestment Projects (or
Investment).g= plowback x ROE
Perpetual Net Cash Flows (C) from each Project (or reinvestment).
Io = Value of Reinvestment (Not paid to share holders)
= Pb x EPS
Where Pb= Plough back = 1 ­ Payout ratio
Payout ration = (DIV/EPS) and
EPS Earnings per Share= (NI - DIV) / # Shares of Common Stock Outstanding
Where NI = Net Income from P/L Statement and DIV = Dividend, RE1= REo+ NI1+ DIV1
ROE = Net income /# Shares of Common Stock Outstanding.
Now when we look at the detailed method of calculating the NPV you will see that
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Financial Management ­ MGT201
VU
NPV 1 = [-Io + (C/rCE)] / (rCE -g)
If we compare it with the traditional NPV formula
-Io = Value of initial investment
(C/rCE) = present value formula for perpetuities where you assume that you are generating the net cash
inflow of C every year.
C = Forecasted Net Cash Inflow from Reinvestment = Io x ROE
Where ROE = Return on Equity = NI / Book Equity of Common Stock Outstanding
In the EPS approach, in calculating the fair price of the common stock our conceptual logic was
we calculate the value of the piece of paper based upon the cash flows the real company generated. We
do this because the value of direct claim securities can be calculated form the underlying assets.
In EPS approach, we talk abut the company and the cash flows that the company generates but in the
case of dividends approach , we are talking about the cash flows directly generated from the piece of
paper(i.e. dividends).
The PVGO in EPS approach formula is different from `g'.
`g' it is the growth rate in dividends
PVGO is potential growth in the value of the business from the future investments in new projects. The
basic model we used to estimate this present value of the company which is coming from investment in
the future projects with +ve NPV is that we assume that the company saves their part of the net income
in the form of retained earning every year. So, in this particular model we are assuming that these
retained earning is invested in projects that will yield +ve NPV each year and the cash flows are
constant. It also assumes that NPV from investment that a company makes in new projects grows at
constant growth rate `g' perpetually.
Example:
The Common Stock of Company ABC is trading in the Islamabad Stock Exchange at a market
price of Rs 105. You are considering investing in it so you study the company's Annual Report,
Financial Statements, and make some forecasts. The Data is as follows:
Forecasted Dividend Next Year = Rs 10
Expected Dividend Growth = 10% pa
Forecasted Earnings per Share = Rs 12
Your Required Return on Investment in ABC Common Stock = 20% pa.
Compute the Estimated Present Fair Price of Company ABC's Common Stock.
Dividend Pricing (Gordon's) Approach:
PV = Po* = DIV1 / (rCE - g)
= 10 / (20%-10%) = 10/0.10
= Rs 100 (Estimated Fair Price is less than Market Price of Rs 110 so share is
overvalued in the Market)
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Pricing Model
­  PV = Po* = EPS 1/ rCE + PVGO
EPS 1 / rCE = 12 / 0.20 = Rs 60
PVGO = NPV1 / (rCE -g) = [-Io+(c/ rCE)] / (rCE -g)
= [-(PbxEPS) + (IoxROE/ rCE)] / (rCE -g)
= [-(1/6 x 12) + (2 x 6/10 / 0.20)] / (0.20 - 0.10)
= [-2 + 6] / 0.10 = Rs 40
Pb = 1 - Payout = 1 - DIV / EPS = 1 - 10/12 = 1/6
g = Pb x ROE = 10% = 1/10  So ROE = 6/10
PV = Rs 60 + Rs 40 = Rs 100 (Same as Dividend Approach).
EPS Approach shows that 40% (i.e. Rs 40 out of Rs 100) of the Value is Growth Based (i.e. PVGO) ­
Growth Stock:
It is growth share where the value of the share is determined by the potential of this company to
grow its business as oppose to company which have low growth rate.
Particularly, for IT internet companies where we expect a high rate of growth for he business the PVGO
term is large percent of the price of the share.
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Table of Contents:
  1. INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT:Corporate Financing & Capital Structure,
  2. OBJECTIVES OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, FINANCIAL ASSETS AND FINANCIAL MARKETS:Real Assets, Bond
  3. ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS:Basic Financial Statements, Profit & Loss account or Income Statement
  4. TIME VALUE OF MONEY:Discounting & Net Present Value (NPV), Interest Theory
  5. FINANCIAL FORECASTING AND FINANCIAL PLANNING:Planning Documents, Drawback of Percent of Sales Method
  6. PRESENT VALUE AND DISCOUNTING:Interest Rates for Discounting Calculations
  7. DISCOUNTING CASH FLOW ANALYSIS, ANNUITIES AND PERPETUITIES:Multiple Compounding
  8. CAPITAL BUDGETING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING TECHNIQUES:Techniques of capital budgeting, Pay back period
  9. NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) AND INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (IRR):RANKING TWO DIFFERENT INVESTMENTS
  10. PROJECT CASH FLOWS, PROJECT TIMING, COMPARING PROJECTS, AND MODIFIED INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (MIRR)
  11. SOME SPECIAL AREAS OF CAPITAL BUDGETING:SOME SPECIAL AREAS OF CAPITAL BUDGETING, SOME SPECIAL AREAS OF CAPITAL BUDGETING
  12. CAPITAL RATIONING AND INTERPRETATION OF IRR AND NPV WITH LIMITED CAPITAL.:Types of Problems in Capital Rationing
  13. BONDS AND CLASSIFICATION OF BONDS:Textile Weaving Factory Case Study, Characteristics of bonds, Convertible Bonds
  14. BONDS’ VALUATION:Long Bond - Risk Theory, Bond Portfolio Theory, Interest Rate Tradeoff
  15. BONDS VALUATION AND YIELD ON BONDS:Present Value formula for the bond
  16. INTRODUCTION TO STOCKS AND STOCK VALUATION:Share Concept, Finite Investment
  17. COMMON STOCK PRICING AND DIVIDEND GROWTH MODELS:Preferred Stock, Perpetual Investment
  18. COMMON STOCKS – RATE OF RETURN AND EPS PRICING MODEL:Earnings per Share (EPS) Pricing Model
  19. INTRODUCTION TO RISK, RISK AND RETURN FOR A SINGLE STOCK INVESTMENT:Diversifiable Risk, Diversification
  20. RISK FOR A SINGLE STOCK INVESTMENT, PROBABILITY GRAPHS AND COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION
  21. 2- STOCK PORTFOLIO THEORY, RISK AND EXPECTED RETURN:Diversification, Definition of Terms
  22. PORTFOLIO RISK ANALYSIS AND EFFICIENT PORTFOLIO MAPS
  23. EFFICIENT PORTFOLIOS, MARKET RISK AND CAPITAL MARKET LINE (CML):Market Risk & Portfolio Theory
  24. STOCK BETA, PORTFOLIO BETA AND INTRODUCTION TO SECURITY MARKET LINE:MARKET, Calculating Portfolio Beta
  25. STOCK BETAS &RISK, SML& RETURN AND STOCK PRICES IN EFFICIENT MARKS:Interpretation of Result
  26. SML GRAPH AND CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL:NPV Calculations & Capital Budgeting
  27. RISK AND PORTFOLIO THEORY, CAPM, CRITICISM OF CAPM AND APPLICATION OF RISK THEORY:Think Out of the Box
  28. INTRODUCTION TO DEBT, EFFICIENT MARKETS AND COST OF CAPITAL:Real Assets Markets, Debt vs. Equity
  29. WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC):Summary of Formulas
  30. BUSINESS RISK FACED BY FIRM, OPERATING LEVERAGE, BREAK EVEN POINT& RETURN ON EQUITY
  31. OPERATING LEVERAGE, FINANCIAL LEVERAGE, ROE, BREAK EVEN POINT AND BUSINESS RISK
  32. FINANCIAL LEVERAGE AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE:Capital Structure Theory
  33. MODIFICATIONS IN MILLAR MODIGLIANI CAPITAL STRUCTURE THEORY:Modified MM - With Bankruptcy Cost
  34. APPLICATION OF MILLER MODIGLIANI AND OTHER CAPITAL STRUCTURE THEORIES:Problem of the theory
  35. NET INCOME AND TAX SHIELD APPROACHES TO WACC:Traditionalists -Real Markets Example
  36. MANAGEMENT OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE:Practical Capital Structure Management
  37. DIVIDEND PAYOUT:Other Factors Affecting Dividend Policy, Residual Dividend Model
  38. APPLICATION OF RESIDUAL DIVIDEND MODEL:Dividend Payout Procedure, Dividend Schemes for Optimizing Share Price
  39. WORKING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT:Impact of working capital on Firm Value, Monthly Cash Budget
  40. CASH MANAGEMENT AND WORKING CAPITAL FINANCING:Inventory Management, Accounts Receivables Management:
  41. SHORT TERM FINANCING, LONG TERM FINANCING AND LEASE FINANCING:
  42. LEASE FINANCING AND TYPES OF LEASE FINANCING:Sale & Lease-Back, Lease Analyses & Calculations
  43. MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS:Leveraged Buy-Outs (LBO’s), Mergers - Good or Bad?
  44. INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (MULTINATIONAL FINANCE):Major Issues Faced by Multinationals
  45. FINAL REVIEW OF ENTIRE COURSE ON FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT:Financial Statements and Ratios